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It was another down day in Wall Street, as statements from the FOMC minutes did not reflect the level of unity among policymakers to pause rates as what was initially expected. Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Commodities United States dollar Federal Reserve United States Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Thursday 17 August 2023 07:58 Market Recap It was another down day in Wall Street, as statements from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes did not reflect the level of unity among policymakers to pause rates as what was initially expected. Particularly, the key takeaway that “most participants continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy” was somewhat perceived to carry a hawkish tilt. The Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank funds futures still showed firm expectations for a rate pause in September (88% probability) but doubts have surfaced for the November meeting. A 35% probability of a November hike is currently priced, up from the 28% a week ago. Given that the Fed reiterated its data-dependent stance in the minutes, it may still have to take a series of upside surprises in inflation to anchor down views of additional tightening, but for now, the minutes were tapped on as a catalyst for the risk rally to further unwind, alongside jitters in the Chinese space. US Treasury yields largely held firm, with the two-year yields hovering at the 5% mark as a reflection for a high-for-longer rate outlook while the 10-year yields head for its October 2022 peak. The US dollar firmed, crossing its 200-day moving average (MA) for the first time since November 2022. That kept the pressure on gold prices overnight (-0.5%), which touches a new low since March this year. Its weekly relative strength index (RSI) has headed further below the 50 level, with further downside potentially leaving the US$1,850 level on watch next. Source: IG charts Asia Open Asian stocks look set for a negative open, with Nikkei -0.88%, ASX -0.90% and KOSPI -1.21% at the time of writing. Weak showing in trade data across the region continue to point to the prevailing headwinds in global demand, partly weighed by the low-for-longer growth conditions in China. Japan’s exports registered its first year-on-year decline (-0.3%) in 2.5 years and along with a lower-than-expected read in machinery orders for June (-5.8% versus -5.5% consensus), that may support the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on its more gradual path of policy normalisation. Similarly, Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) for July tumbled, with a larger 20.2% contraction year-on-year way underperforming the 14.4% contraction expected. Given the headwinds to China’s growth conditions with property sector risks likely to drag for longer, while spillover default risks have reached the shadow banking sector, there are rising doubts on the country’s 5% growth target for this year. The current bias is that the worst is yet to come for China, with a more subdued growth outlook across the export-dependent region likely to stay for the rest of the year. A firmer US dollar overnight has pushed the USD/SGD to a new year-to-date high. The daily RSI in overbought territory may call for some cooling, but given that the pair has reclaimed its 200-day MA for the first time since November 2022, buyers still remain in greater control. The pair is heading past its 1.360 level of resistance this morning, where a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level stands from its September 2022 peak to February 2023 bottom. Further upside may potentially pave the way to retest the 1.376 level next. Source: IG charts On the watchlist: US dollar back above its 200-day MA for first time since November 2022 The 4.2% gain in the US dollar over the past month has seen the index overcome several key resistance in the likes of a downward trendline in place since September 2022, along with its 200-day MA. Sustaining above the MA-line will be key ahead. For now, the US dollar is back at its 103.12 level, where it faced strong resistance from the previous Fed minutes release. Reclaiming the 103.12 level may potentially pave the way to retest the 105.00 level next, as its weekly RSI attempts to head above the key 50 level as a reflection of buyers in greater control. Source: IG charts Wednesday: DJIA -0.52%; S&P 500 -0.76%; Nasdaq -1.15%, DAX +0.14%, FTSE -0.44%

Sip on financial insights as a2 Milk's anticipated FY23 earnings report comes to light. Explore the company's resilient journey, revenue projections, and market dynamics. Source: Bloomberg Shares The a2 Milk Company A2 milk Revenue Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization International Monetary Fund Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Thursday 17 August 2023 09:58 When will a2M report its latest earnings? Established in the verdant landscapes of New Zealand in 2000, the a2 Milk (a2M) company stands as a dual-listed entity on the ASX and NZSX. Differentiating itself from traditional cow's milk, a2M's distinctive brand stems from a unique selection of cows that exclusively produce the A2 protein type, omitting the A1 protein, which has raised concerns. Mark your calendars for Monday, August 21st, 2023, at 9 am AEST, as a2M is poised to unveil its FY2023 earnings report, inviting a glimpse into its financial performance and strategic outlook. Navigating uncharted waters: A2M's remarkable journey Recent years have witnessed a tale of exceptional evolution for A2M. With the advent of COVID-19, a surge in sales rode the waves of panic buying. However, fortunes took a sharp turn as international borders shuttered, bringing the daigou/reseller channel to an abrupt halt, echoing the complex nature of the pandemic's impact. Stepping into action, management orchestrated a stabilization strategy. Aiming to right the ship, they undertook measures such as inventory write-downs and fortifying the leadership team. This strategic maneuver not only led to the company's proclamation of a staggering 19.8% surge in revenue, reaching NZ$1.446.2 million in FY22, but also witnessed a remarkable leap of 42.3% in NPAT, ascending to NZ$114.7 million. Adding to this impressive trajectory was a noteworthy NZ$150 million on-market share buyback. The saga continued into the current year, as a2M unveiled its 1H23 results. Despite a significant 12.5% slump in IMF (infant formula) demand in China, reflective of the nation's declining birth rate, the company persisted in its double-digit growth narrative. Highlights of this chapter encompassed an impressive 18.6% surge in revenue, amounting to NZ$783.3 million, and a commendable 10.5% elevation in EBITA, rising to NZ$107.8 million. Strategic resilience in the face of challenges Amid the persistent challenges, including the intricate dynamics of the China IMF market characterised by diminishing birth rates, a2M stands resolute. Anchored in its proactive approach, the company projects a course marked by low double-digit revenue growth throughout FY23. This journey is fortified by the promising expansion in the realms of China label IMF, ANZ liquid milk, and USA liquid milk sales, painting a vivid picture of strategic resilience amidst a landscape of complexity. Events to focus on As a pivotal moment approaches with a2M's FY2023 earnings report, astute investors are advised to keep a watchful eye on key indicators that stand to shape the company's trajectory: Marriage data dynamics: Recent data concerning marriages casts a spotlight on the ongoing decline in birth rates throughout CY23. This trend holds the potential to exert headwinds on Infant Formula (IMF) demand, warranting careful consideration. Steady daigou pricing: Over the course of the last nine months, daigou pricing has exhibited a remarkable stability. This consistency in pricing prompts a closer look, indicating potential insights into market dynamics and consumer behavior. China label IMF's resilient surge: The remarkable performance of the China Label IMF business during 1H2023 underscores its robust position within the group. With this momentum expected to persist, the narrative of growth continues to unfold. Navigating English label IMF sales: Expectations center on a guided descent in English Label IMF sales, accompanied by the unfolding story of yet-to-recovered margins. The interplay of these factors can offer valuable insights into a2M's strategic maneuvering and market positioning. Snapshot of key financial metrics Anticipated revenues: Projections point towards anticipated revenues reaching NZ$1598 million. This figure encapsulates the company's revenue-generating prowess and sets the stage for understanding its financial performance. Expected EBITA: The forecasted Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, and Amortization (EBITA) is NZ$219 million. This critical indicator offers a window into a2M's operational efficiency and profitability. NPAT projection: An expected Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) of NZ$147 million signifies the company's projected bottom-line earnings. This figure underlines the culmination of a2M's financial endeavors and performance during the specified period. a2 Milk historic revenue chart Source: TradingEconomics a2 Milk technical analysis Tracing back to its remarkable bull market zenith of $20.05 in June 2020, the journey of a2M's share price encountered a stark shift, plummeting by over 80% amidst the throes of the Covid-19 pandemic, reaching a nadir of $3.90 in May 2022. Following this substantial decline, the share price embarked on a nuanced trajectory. The subsequent period witnessed the share price grappling with a substantial resistance zone in the range of $7.00 to $7.50. This challenge was followed by a retreat, as the share price retraced towards the vicinity of $5.00. Notably, this $5.00 level has served as a pivotal point, enveloping the share price in a cyclic dance over the span of the past four months. a2 Milk weekly chart Source: TradingView Taking a closer look at the daily chart depicted below, it's evident that a2M's share price is currently targeting the anticipated uptrend support, which is projected to align around the range of $4.85 to $4.74. A crucial juncture lies ahead, as a sustained breach beneath the support level of $4.85/74 post its earnings report could potentially lead to revisiting the low point of May 2022, at $3.90. Recognising the factors at play, it becomes evident that a more favorable trajectory for a2M's share price necessitates its ability to maintain stability above the support zone at $4.85/74. Unlocking a brighter outlook would involve not only holding this support but also overcoming a formidable barrier of resistance situated between $7.00 (aligned with the trend line) and $7.45/50, originating from the October 2021 high. a2 Milk daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of August 15, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.

Elon Musk puts a stop to X offering its web-based TweetDeck service for free. IG financial analyst @AngelineOng takes a look at what this means for anyone relying on TweetDeck and the future shape of X. Shares Twitter Elon Musk Tesla, Inc. Meta Platforms Social media Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Wednesday 16 August 2023 19:27 (Video Transcript) Rebranded X pulls free TweetDeck Now, more changes at Twitter, or X as it's known, the latest one being that X is putting a stop to offering its web-based TweetDeck service for free. Now, this is a huge blow for anyone, any company, relying on this service to compare social media traction and impact. The one thing that you can depend on when it comes to Elon Musk, though, is consistency. He's always made it clear that he wants Twitter, now rebranded X, to pay for itself. Will the Twitterati pay up? A few months back, he even spoke about making users pay per article from anyone disrupting the subscriber model. Now, this could go one of two ways. It could fail, like many media organisations have seen in the past, with people not wanting to pay for a service they used to get for free. Rival Threads is also finding the uptake slowing and tapering off now. Just taking a look at Meta's chart, because Meta platform's boss, Mark Zuckerberg, launched Threads in July, and it was seen as a potential threat to Twitter, or now known as X. Can Elon turn X into another Tesla? Many market-watchers think that Musk could also have a premium X model, which would service the more lucrative parts of the internet, like commerce, communications and more suggestive services. Now, the big question is, can Elon turn X into another Tesla? Remember, he was told it would be too expensive, too difficult to ever build commercial batteries for a commercial electric vehicle (EV). And now, look at where we are. For more videos from us here at IGTV, join us on Twitter at IGcom, Instagram and subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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The Chinese yuan is falling as an array of economic indicators released this morning show China, the World's second-largest economy, has slowed further. Forex China Economy Economy of China Renminbi USD/CNH Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 15 August 2023 13:52 Industrial output rose 3.7% from a year earlier, a slower rate than the 4.4% in June and below expectations for a 4.4% increase. Retail sales rose 2.5%, down from a 3.1% increase in June and missing analysts' forecasts of 4.5% growth, while the unemployment rate rose one notch to 5.3%. As a result of all this the People's Bank of China cut its one-year MLF rate for the second time in three months, by 15 basis points to 2.5%. The uptrend in USD/CNH continues. (Video Transcript) The Chinese Yuan The Chinese Yuan is on the way down again today, falling as an array of economic indicators across the Chinese economy released today show the world's second largest economy has slowed further. Let's take a look at the evidence that we've seen. Industrial output, it did rise 3.7% and in any other economy this would look good, but this is from this time last year, a slower rate than the 4.4% in June and below expectations of a 4.4% increase. Chinese economy Industrial sales, yep, again, still looking pretty good so far as other economies are concerned, but way short of expectations at 2.5%. 3.1% increase we saw in June. Analyst forecasts of a growth of 4.5%. Also, unemployment rate rising one notch to 5.3%. And the problems the Chinese economy has got, or the Chinese authorities, is the fact that this is useful employment most notably. And that is the part of the economy, part of the social structure, which is most mobile, which are most vocal, and which have been finding the going most tough. The People's Bank of China Less than an hour before the release of the batch of July data coming through in the Chinese economy, the People's Bank of China (PBOC),, cut its one year loan rate for the second time in three months, this time by 15 basis points to 2.5%. It also announced a few minutes ago China mulling cutting stamp duty to revise the stock market. Let's take a look at what's happening on the foreign exchange market. USD/CNH This is the USD/CNH, which we trade on the IG platform. And last week I drew this Andrew's pitchfork on here, which I felt was interesting because if you look at the lows that we had back on the 14th of July, which is where the pitchfork handle starts, that was then broken, as indeed it always gets done in an upward moving trajectory by the lows that we had back on the 27th of July. Hitting levels there not seen since the 16th of June. Since then, we've seen the bottom line of this pitchfork respected. We're now into the second band here, which gives me confidence. We've got a break here as well of the line of resistance on the 30th of June. CAD We're now there at levels not seen since the 4th of November. If you're long on this, your stock retains underneath the rising line of support down here. So you'll stop at about the 723 level. You could be a little bit more aggressive in your stock potentially to go up underneath this green dotted line here, which would be under today's CAD, which might be a little bit too close. But nonetheless, this trend is in place, and because we've seen recent highs not seen since the 4th of November there, I'm relatively confident that this continues to be a trend to watch out for. It was a trade in a trend I caught up on last week, and it is now making money on the markets. It's not a trade recommendation, it's just an observation of what's happening and how you would structure a trade if you were to go long on this market. If you have been long so far, keep that stop loss coming up underneath the session lows to try and help you keep the profits locked in on this long trade on the dollar against the UN.

Outlook on Brent crude oil, Chicago wheat and orange juice as People’s Bank of China cuts its one-year medium-term lending facility. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 15 August 2023 14:37 Brent crude oil recovers slightly as top importer China cuts MLF The Brent crude oil price has risen slightly as the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly lowered its one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rates by 15 basis points to 2.50% as it seeks to stimulate China’s economy which faces risks from a deepening property crisis and weak consumer spending. A possible rise above Monday’s high at $86.35 in the Brent crude oil price would probably engage the 4 August high at $86.55. Further up sits last week’s high at $87.83. The June-to-August uptrend line and Monday’s low at $85.19 is expected to offer at least interim support, if revisited. If not, a deeper correction back towards the early August low at $82.31 may be in store. Source: ProRealTime Progressing harvest pushes Chicago Wheat prices to a one-month low Chicago Wheat’s steady decline from its $7.85 late July high has taken it to a one-month low around $6.27. The drop in the wheat price is supported by US plains rain which continues to improve crop prospects and after the US Department of Agriculture boosted its projection of US wheat ending stocks for 2023-24 to 615 million bus at the end of last week. A drop through $6.27 on a daily chart closing basis would push the psychological $6 mark back to the fore, below which lurks the May low at $5.82. Minor resistance may be encountered around the $6.43 early August low. From a technical perspective while the price of Chicago Wheat remains below last week’s peak at $6.79, the last few weeks’ downtrend remains intact. Source: ProRealTime Orange juice prices remain capped by the psychological $3 mark Front month orange juice futures continue to sideways trade below the minor psychological $3.00 mark as they have done since the beginning of August. Monday’s attempt of a break higher seems to have run out of steam at $2.9898. This level and the $3.0000 mark would need to be exceeded for the July high at $3.1075 to come back into play. While the $3 region continues to cap, the lower end of the August sideways trading range at $2.8723 remains a possible first downside target. Failure there would most likely engage the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2.7508. Source: ProRealTime

More poor economic data from China cast a shadow over markets overnight, but a cut in some lending rates by the PBoC meant that hopes of a further easing of policy measures was likely. In addition, Japan's economy grew at a faster pace than expected in Q2, helping to support risk appetite. The UK unemployment rate rose to 4.2% for June, while average earnings rose by 7.8% for the three months to June, ahead of forecasts. The German ZEW index, Canadian inflation and US retail sales mean today will be a busy one for data-watchers.

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China's property sector is once again causing jitters in global markets. Asian indices dropped back as Country Garden suspended trading in 11 of its onshore bonds. This has echoes of the Evergrande crisis of 2021, and has caused the week to begin in risk-off fashion. The dollar is in the ascendant once again, after last week's inflation data, particularly Friday's PPI figures, have raised fears that the Fed may need to begin to tighten policy once more. An empty calendar for today leaves the focus on China and US inflation, and futures are pointing to a weaker open for Europe and Wall Street.

Please see the interest rates that are used when IG calculates the overnight funding rate (per annum) on shares and indices. This does not include the IG admin fee. The information provided is an indication as of 14th Aug 2023 and will be published weekly on Mondays. *** It's important to note that the rates are subject to daily changes and are based on the currency of the underlying market, not the contract currency.

Stocks in Asia pushed to a one-month low overnight following the US CPI figures, while poor demand in a Treasury auction and a higher US budget deficit gave additional support to bonds. This boosted yields and lifted the dollar as well, which has returned to a one-month high against the yen. GDP data from the UK provided some much-needed good news for the British economy and helped the pound to recover after yesterday's reversal against the dollar. Growth for the UK was above expectations for the Q2 figure, as well as the 3 months to June. A weaker open is expected for Europe, but US futures have ticked higher despite a mixed performance following yesterday's inflation data.

Please find our expected trading hours for UK Summer Bank Holiday & US Labor Day trading Hours in the table below. [All times BST]: Monday 28 August 2023 UK Summer Bank Holiday UK equities, index futures, soft commodities, and interest rates will be closed. We’ll be making an out-of-hours price on the FTSE 100 until futures re-open at 1 am on Tuesday Brent Crude and London Gas Oil will be open as normal. UK Natural Gas futures will be closed. New York Cocoa, Coffee, and Sugar contracts will open at 12.30 pm Monday 4 September 2023 US Labor Day We’ll make out-of-hours prices on Wall Street, US 500, US Russell 2000, FANG Index, and US Tech 100 from 6 pm until futures re-open at 11 pm US and Canadian equities, and soft commodities will be closed US interest rates will close early at 6 pm US metals and energies will close early at 7.30 pm Brent Crude, London Gas Oil, and ICE WTI will close early at 6.30 pm London Sugar will close early at 5 pm The VIX will close early at 4.30 pm More resources: CME Futures: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading-hours/files/labor-day-2023.pdf US and Canadian Equities: https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars & https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stock-market-holiday-schedule & https://www.tsx.com/trading/calendars-and-trading-hours/calendar UK Equities: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/equities-trading/business-days ICE Futures: https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/Trading_Schedule.pdf + https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures/Trading_Schedule_Migrated_Liffe_Contracts.pdf (EU) & https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/ICE_Futures_US_2023_LaborDayHoliday20230705.pdf + https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/ICE_Futures_US_ExNotDelayedOpensAug_28_2023_20230621.pdf (US) CBOE VIX: https://www.cboe.com/about/hours/us-futures/

Your weekly financial calendar for market insights and key economic indicators. Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Shares Commodities United States Consumer price index Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Friday 11 August 2023 08:24 This week brought its usual mix of high-profile successes and disappointments, while the backdrop of increasing energy prices also played a notable role in shaping market sentiment. The decline on Wall Street intensified this week, triggered by weak Chinese economic data and Moody’s downgrading of several mid-tier US banks. In contrast, the Japanese stock market, represented by the Nikkei index, continued to climb due to robust corporate earnings and the favorable valuation of the Japanese yen. For the ASX 200, the focus of this week was firmly on the resurgence of energy stocks and the ongoing earnings season. US headline CPI rose 0.2% in July, pushing the annual rate to 3.2% Core CPI also rose 0.2%, with the annual rate at 4.7% Deflation arrived in China as July inflation fell -0.3% YoY from June's 0.0% European gas prices surged 30%, and crude oil climbed above $84.00 a barrel Moody’s lowered credit rating on several small to midsized US banks US dollar gained for a fourth consecutive week against most G10 currencies Gold fell to $1910 as US yields and dollar gained Volatility (VIX) index on Wall Street fell -7.31% to 15.84. AU: RBA Meeting minutes (Tuesday, August 15 at 11:30 am AEST) NZ: RBNZ interest rate decision (Wednesday, August 16 at 12:00 pm AEST) AU: Employment Report (Thursday, August 17 at 11:30 am AEST) JP: Q2 GDP (Tuesday, August 15 at 9:50 am AEST) CN: IP (Tuesday, August 15 at 12:00 pm AEST) JP: Inflation (Friday, August 18 at 9:30 am AEST) US: Retail Sales (Tuesday, August 15 at 10:30 pm AEST) US: Housing Starts and Building Permits (Wednesday, August 16 at 10:30 pm AEST) US: IP (Wednesday, August 16 at 11:15 pm AEST) US: FOMC minutes (Thursday, August 17 at 4:00 am AEST) UK: Employment (Tuesday, August 15 at 4:00 pm AEST) UK: Inflation (Wednesday, August 16 at 4:00 pm AEST) EA: Industrial Production (Wednesday, August 16 at 7:00 pm AEST) UK: Retail Sales (Friday, August 18 at 4:00 pm AEST) Source: Bloomberg AU RBA Meeting Minutes Tuesday, August 15 at 11:30 am AEST The Minutes from the Reserve Bank's meeting in August are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, August 15th at 11:30 am. At its meeting in August, the RBA kept its cash rate on hold at 4.10% for a second consecutive month. The RBA's decision to keep rates on hold was based on similar reasons as in July - to assess the impact of a cumulative 400bp rate hikes and evidence that a sustainable rebalancing between supply and demand is underway. In the accompanying statement, the RBA displayed more comfort around the inflation outlook, noting that while inflation remains "still too high at 6 per cent", recent data is "consistent with inflation returning to the 2-3 per cent target range over the forecast horizon" based on the proviso that productivity growth "picks up". Putting a dent in hopes that the RBA may have ended its rate hiking cycle, the RBA retained its tightening bias: "Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe", which fits with our view of one more 25bp rate hike to 4.35% before year-end. The Board meeting minutes would be expected to reiterate the sentiments outlined above. They will be closely scrutinised around what factors would prompt the RBA to act on its tightening bias and what factors might see the RBA extend its pause for a third consecutive month. RBA cash rate chart Source: RBA AU Employment report Thursday, August 17 at 11:30 am AEST June's employment demonstrated robust growth of 32.6k, once again surpassing market expectations for a rise of 15k, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.5%. The participation rate experienced a slight decline of 0.1%, coming in at 66.8% compared to the previous month's record high of 66.9%. The uptick in employment during June maintained the employment-to-population ratio at a historic high of 64.5%, indicating a tight labour market where employment has been aligning with population growth. For July, the market anticipates a growth of +15k in employment, alongside a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 3.6%. The participation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 66.8%. AU unemployment rate Source: TradingEconomics UK Inflation report Wednesday, August 16 at 4.00 pm AEST In June, the headline inflation in the UK experienced a decline to 7.9% YoY, marking the lowest level since March 2022 and significantly below the peak of 11.1% in October of the previous year. Concurrently, core inflation eased to 6.9% from a 31-year high of 7.1% YoY seen in May. For July, the market's anticipation is for headline inflation to further reduce to 6.7%, and similarly, core inflation is predicted to follow this trend. The UK rates market has currently priced in approximately 40 basis points of rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE) before the year concludes. Notably, the BoE's terminal rate is now perceived at 5.65%, displaying a significant decrease from 6.1% recorded at this same time last month. UK inflation rate chart Source: TradingEconomics JP GDP Q2 GDP Tuesday, August 15 at 9.50 am AEST Japan's economic data in the second quarter has revealed pockets of resilience, with the services sector demonstrating ongoing strength and trade activities showing improvement. Based on these trends, current expectations are that Japan's annualized 2Q GDP will increase to 3.1%, a rise from the 2.7% recorded in 1Q. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, there is a consensus for a 0.8% growth rate, slightly higher than the 0.7% seen in 1Q. However, it's important to note that while the upcoming GDP data is anticipated to highlight economic resilience, it reflects a retrospective view, potentially directing more attention towards recent data for insights into the country's economic prospects. The forthcoming week will bring fresh updates on Japan's inflation, serving as a focal point to determine the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) pace of normalization and its direct impact on growth conditions. JP GDP chart Source: Investing.com JP Inflation report Friday, August 18 at 9.30 am AEST Japan's policymakers have been proceeding cautiously toward policy normalisation, recently guiding for flexibility around their yield curve control policy while also ensuring to keep hawkish bets in check with unscheduled bond-purchase operations. Given that a sustained and stable 2% inflation rate is one of the considerations for policymakers, any persistent increase in inflation numbers next week may likely contribute to calls for a quicker pace of normalisation. Currently, expectations are for Japan's July core inflation to moderate to 3.1% year-on-year, down from the previous 3.3%. The focus will be on the core-core inflation (inflation excluding food and energy prices), which remains more than two-fold above the central bank's target (4.2% in July). Any lack of progress on that front may challenge the 'transitory inflation' argument from the BoJ and trigger some hawkish bets. JP inflation rate chart Source: Refinitiv US FOMC Meeting Minutes Thursday, August 17 at 4.00 am AEST Following the 25 basis-point (bp) rate hike from the Fed at its last meeting, the upcoming meeting minutes will provide insights into the level of unity among policymakers regarding that decision, as well as their future rate hike appetite. The minutes are also expected to reflect an improved level of confidence in growth conditions, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s previous comments that the central bank's staff no longer forecasts a US recession. However, given the Fed’s clear emphasis on its data-dependent policy stance, more attention may instead focus on fresh updates regarding US job and inflation data after the Fed meeting, as the minutes are backward-looking. Thus far, Fed funds futures pricing has been firm for an extended rate pause from the Fed throughout the rest of the year, supported by softer-than-expected inflation data this week. US US Q2 2023 earnings Q2 2023 earnings season is in the final straight with reports next week due from companies including the giant retailers Home Depot, Target, Walmart. Source: Refinitiv Economics calendar All times shown in AEST (UTC+10) unless otherwise stated Source: DailyFX

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Will today’s US inflation print keep the Fed on guard? US inflation data is expected to be the big swing point of today's trade after June's surprisingly large drop, which sparked widespread relief in the markets. Volatility United States Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 10 August 2023 12:47 (Partial video transcript) US CPI data Good morning. Welcome to IG's Early Morning Call. It's Thursday the 10th of August. Let's take a look at the headlines as we await what looks to be a stronger start across the European markets in today's session. It certainly seems like there's going to be a key event later on that we'll be pointing out for, which is going to be the CPI data out in States. That's going to be key. If we see a strong number that could see an unwind of some of the early gains across the European markets. All this comes as oil pushes higher, higher, and higher again. Yesterday we saw us crude near nine-month highs. Now this is the highest print that we've seen for 2023 with this big drawdown in US stockpiles printed just over six month highs. And late last night we saw a mixed picture coming through from the entertainment giant Disney for the fiscal third quarter whilst earnings per share beat expectations. There's been big concerns about subscribers amongst the streaming part of the business. Volatility Let's take a look at volatility - down today, which indicates this appetite, I think, again, as we were saying yesterday, for risk assets across the markets. We've got a rise here in the London markets, we're now very close to 7,600 level in the FTSE 100. The long-term picture, difficult to know whether we are going to see a continuation of the recent gains

A mixed session in Asia overnight follows on from a divergent performance for US and European markets, where the latter rallied but the former continued to see selling. Attention turns firmly to today's US CPI. A weaker figure might be enough to see US stocks rebound, while a renewed strong pace of price growth could set off fresh worries about more Fed rate hikes that might see US indices push lower. Inflation fears have risen once more following the recovery in oil prices and recent strength in natural gas, in an echo of the moves seen in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

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The entertainment company Walt Disney will report fiscal third quarter (Q3) results after the bell tonight. Shares The Walt Disney Company Streaming media Artificial intelligence Cinema of the United States Chief executive officer Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 09 August 2023 12:57 While revenues are expected to rise 4.6% to $22.5 billion, earnings per share are forecast to drop 11%. Why? There are a number of issues, but the cost of competition amongst streaming companies is rising and some in the sector are being forced to cut subscriptions just to stand still. But Disney has another problem: its streaming business is shrinking. As of 1 April this year Disney had 157.8 million paid subscribers, down from 161.8 million as of 31 December last year. Will this sort of drop be repeated in this release? Separately, Reuters is reporting that Disney has set up a taskforce to engage more heavily with AI, something that may irk striking actors in Hollywood. (Video Transcript) Disney Q3 earnings preview Disney is about to release its latest financial report, and it's expected to show a decrease in earnings per share (EPS), even though their revenues have gone up. The reason for this is that Disney+, their streaming service, has seen a decline in subscriber growth. Basically, fewer people are signing up for the service. This could be because there are a lot of other streaming platforms out there, like Netflix and Amazon Prime Video, that people are choosing instead. Disney's sports network, ESPN, is also facing some challenges, so the CEO is thinking about selling part of that business. On top of all that, Disney is looking into using artificial intelligence (AI) in their company, but some Hollywood actors are on strike because they're worried that AI could take away their jobs. Share price When it comes to Disney's stock, it's been a bit up and down. When the current CEO, Bob Iger, took over, the stock started off pretty strong, but it's been struggling lately. Right now, it's trading at around $88.56 per share. Overall, Disney's upcoming financial report is expected to show that their streaming service isn't doing as well as they had hoped, and the whole industry is facing similar challenges. There's also some concern from actors who are protesting against the company's plans with AI technology. So, in simpler terms, Disney's streaming service isn't getting as many new customers because there are a lot of other options out there. Their sports network is also having some problems, and the CEO is thinking about selling part of it. Plus, Disney is exploring using AI in their company, but some actors aren't happy about it. As a result, Disney's stock performance has been a bit up and down.

China falls back into deflation - hopes rise of more stimulus As the world markets await US CPI data on Thursday, China says its consumer prices dropped back into deflation. Deflation China Stock market Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 09 August 2023 12:48 (Partial video transcript) China deflation Good morning. Welcome to IG's Early Morning Call. It's Wednesday the 9th of August. Let's take a look at the headlines as we await what looks to be a slightly stronger start on the European equity markets in the session. The headlines are dominated by what's been happening overnight in China with the release of consumer price data showing that deflation has returned to the economy. With the markets now waiting Thursday's, US CPI we are continuing to monitor what's going on around the world so far as CPI data is concerned. Earnings All this comes as we await Disney's earnings after the bell this evening. It's reporting fiscal third quarter (Q3) numbers and the report's also suggesting that the business is starting to engage with artificial intelligence (AI). Could that upset further striking actors in Hollywood? And Lyft last night - one minute up, 22%, then it swung to a loss of 1.3% on the markets in yesterday's trade as a result of news from the chief executive that the high margin business is beginning to dry up. Take a look at what's happening. Volatility, it was all over the place yesterday. In fact, at one point yesterday we saw a spike up to levels not seen since the 1st of June. And all of a sudden things began to look quite good for US traders. But then there was a big pullback. And in fact, we did see a green candle yesterday. But today a little bit of a drop down again which suggests that it's one of those days we're seeing risk assets come back into vogue. European markets And indeed this could be demonstrated here with the London markets. At the moment currently trading up a third of 1%, looking for a slightly stronger start at 7563, and it's the same story across the European markets with the start of today's trade looking particularly good after a recovery on the German markets yesterday. You can see this candle here with the wick long, lower wick down here. Testing this rising line of support that's been in place since the low we had back on the 20th of December last year. So that rising line still very much in evidence. There's also this red line here, which is a supporting, guiding shadow, if you like on the markets indicating potentially further upside to go. And indeed, this is just a retracement in the longer term picture. And we see this line here at support at 15,333 as the point to watch out for drawing a Fib on here from the lows we had there back on what was that low point we had there back on the 7th of July. And you can see we're just bubbling around the 61.8% retracement support level. Yesterday we saw that spike lower down to the 76.4 before the rebound. And this, I think to me, looks as though potentially we could well get another swing to the upside in the markets. And some of this I think has really been brought to bear on expectations that China is potentially likely to see some more stimulus as a result of that swing down back into deflation.

Yesterday's poor China trade figures and reports of a windfall tax on Italian banks drove investors firmly into risk-off mode. Overnight Asian markets fell further, while inflation data from China failed to provide any lift to sentiment. The focus turns to US CPI, published tomorrow, but with recent Fed comments highlighting that policy will remain unchanged for an extended period (barring a rapid deterioration), it will take a big surprise to shift markets. A mostly empty calendar for this afternoon is alleviated somewhat by Disney earnings this evening.

Alibaba Group will report its June quarter results on August 10th. This to-be-reported quarter holds immense significance for the company, as two major changes have the potential to usher an entirely new era for BABA. Source: Bloomberg Shares Alibaba Group China E-commerce Technical analysis Market trend Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Wednesday 09 August 2023 08:24 Alibaba Group is poised to take center stage as it unveils its June quarter 2023 results on August 10th. This to-be-reported quarter holds immense significance for the company, as two major changes announced during this period have the potential to propel the Chinese e-commerce powerhouse into an entirely new era. Alibaba Earnings Date Alibaba Group Will Announce June Quarter 2023 Results on August 10, 2023. Alibaba Earnings Expectations EPS: CNY14.46 (52% increase QoQ) Revenue: 224.91B (7% increase QoQ) Alibaba Earnings Key Focus Revenue and profitability According to its most recent quarterly report, while BABA experienced substantial growth across various business categories, its primary revenue generator, "China commerce," which contributes 65% of the group's total income, witnessed an unexpected 3% year-over-year (YOY) drop. This decline is particularly noteworthy worrying considering that the March quarter report encompasses the first full three months since China fully reopened from its stringent COVID restrictions. As such, one of the primary focal points for BABA's Q2 earnings will be the e-commerce giant's efforts to reverse the downtrend in the domestic commerce segment, especially in light of China's current underwhelming economic recovery journey. Another compelling factor to closely monitor is the profitability. In the preceding quarter, Alibaba delivered a remarkable 60% year-over-year (YOY) growth in its adjusted EBITA. This accomplishment marks the company's successful return to a double-digit EBITDA margin, after dipping to only 8% in the previous year. How is BABA 2.0? In the first half of 2023, Alibaba made several significant announcements that captured global headlines. On March 28th, the company confirmed its strategic move to spin off its business units into six self-operated companies, including the intention to take the cloud intelligence and logistics division public within the next 12 to 18 months. This "biggest restructuring plan in the company's history" led to a 15% surge in BABA’s stock price, driven by the anticipation of enhanced company value and potential growth. Another major milestone occurred in late June when Alibaba underwent a significant leadership transition. This reshuffling involved the replacement of both the Chairman of the Board and the CEO positions. Simultaneously, China's central bank imposed a substantial fine of 7.12 billion yuan (approx $985 million) on Ant Group, an affiliate of Alibaba. This monster-sized fine was widely interpreted as the conclusion of the Chinese government's two-year-long clampdown on the tech sector. All these indicators appear to suggest that an exciting "new era" for BABA is on the horizon. However, whether the bearish thesis against Alibaba can be put aside remains a matter of debate, and it is too early to draw definitive conclusions. Nonetheless, the upcoming earnings report has the potential to shed more light on the company's fresh chapter. Alibaba Technical Analysis Looking at BABA's daily chart, it's worth noting that the price action has shown strong momentum, forming an ascending trajectory since early July, despite falling short of retesting the April peak at $103. However, as August began, the price slipped below the psychologically significant level of $100 and has been trending towards the lower boundary of this upward trajectory in recent sessions. This situation could indicate a potential bear-biased turn coinciding with the release of earnings. In the event that the month-long trend line is breached following a disappointing result, the December peak at $95 could come into play as an initial support. Further down the line, the $90 region assumes a critical role as a level of support, as it currently intersects with the 50, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Conversely, on the positive side, before BABA’s stock price rechallenging its recent four-month peak at $103, it is imperative for the price to overcome the price gap between $98 and $99, which stands as an immediate hurdle.

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The Week Ahead Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week Week commencing 7th Aug. Chris Beauchamp's insight Things finally quieten down this week after the frenetic pace of the past two weeks. US consumer price index (CPI) will be the key event to watch, as price rises continue to moderate from the heady pace of earlier in the year. UK gross domestic product (GDP) for quarter 2 (Q2) will also provide some movement for sterling. On the earnings front, TUI AG (LSE), Persimmon PLC, Antofagasta PLC and Walt Disney Co (All Sessions) are major names to watch. Economic reports Weekly View Monday None Tuesday 1.30am – Australia Westpac Confidence Index (August): index to fall to 80.7 from 81.3. Markets to watch: AUD crosses 4am – China trade balance (July): exports fell 12.4% in June. Markets to watch: CNH crosses Wednesday 2.30am - China CPI (July): prices to fall 0.3% YoY. Markets to watch: CNH crosses Thursday 1.30pm – US CPI (July), initial jobless claims (w/e 5 August): prices to rise 2.8% YoY from 3%, and 0.1% from 0.2% MoM, while core CPI is expected to rise 4.6% from 4.8% YoY and 0.2% MoM, in line with last month. Claims to rise to 229K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Friday 7am – UK GDP (Q2, preliminary): growth to be -0.8% YoY and 0.1% QoQ. Markets to watch: FTSE 100/250, GBP crosses 1.30pm – US PPI (July): prices to rise 0.3% MoM from 0.1%. Markets to watch: USD crosses 3pm – US Michigan consumer sentiment (August): index to drop to 70.9 from 71.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses Company announcements Monday 7 August Tuesday 8 August Wednesday 9 August Thursday 10 August Friday 11 August Full-year earnings Half/ Quarterly earnings Novavax Inc , News Corp, Beyond Meat Abrdn, Glencore, Lyft Flutter, TUI, Continental, Walt Disney Co Persimmon, Antofagasta, Deliveroo, Siemens, Metro, Allianz Trading update* Bellway Dividends FTSE 100: Ashtead, Rio Tinto, Barclays, Shell, Informa, Segro, NatWest, AstraZeneca, Standard Chartered, IMI, Pearson, HSBC, BP, Fresnillo FTSE 250: GCP Infrastructure, Impax Environmental Markets, MAN, Domino's Pizza, Target Healthcare, Spirent Communications, IP Group, Tritax Big Box, Hikma Pharmaceuticals

Welcome to the community! Looking forward to the ideas and experiences you will share with the community. All the best, AshishIG