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Technical and fundamental bearish bias; ECB edges up currency wars; UK's next Brexit votes

Fed Sets the Tone for Global Monetary Policy Expectations Global monetary policy trends have shifted towards a more accommodative stance as forecasts for economic activity have stuttered and worries of ‘external risks’ have gained traction. This has sharpened the relative value of currencies as market dig into the grey areas trying to determine which groups are taking greater strides to loosen than their peers. However, it is crucial that all investors – no matter your preferred market nor

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

German Banking Giants Announce Formal Merger Talks - EMEA Brief 18 Mar

Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank have announced formal merger talks which could result in the combined bank holding one fifth of Germany's High Street banking business.  Asian shares rose despite reported potential push back of agreement to end trade war. The Hang Seng gained 1%, the Shanghai Composite surged 2.3% and Japan's Nikkei climbed 0.6%.  Trump's weekend tweets ramped up the pressure on General Motors to reopen Ohio manufacturing plant which recent's closure cut 1,700 jobs. 

MichaelaIG

MichaelaIG

Dividend Adjustments 18 Mar - 25 Mar

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 18 Mar 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral ad

MaxIG

MaxIG

Flowless rally - APAC brief 18 Mar

A flowless rally: It’s being dubbed the “flowless rally”. Equities are ticking higher, but without the fundamental buying-support one might assume. This is especially so when considering the milestone achieved on Wall Street on Friday. Finally, the 2815 resistance level has tumbled, and the bulls have cautiously, quietly rejoiced. There are yellow flags popping up here and there, however, and that is making participants wary. It goes back to this “flowless rally” business: the latest leg of glob

MaxIG

MaxIG

MP's Vote To Extend Article 50 As The Brexit Saga Continues - EMEA Brief 15 March

Theresa May has scheduled another vote on her Brexit deal following the latest round of voting on the house of commons as MP’s voted last night to extend article 50. It still remains to be seen whether this extension will be agreed to by the EU. The US senate has voted to prevent funding for Trump’s border wall, the main sticking point of the government shutdown at the beginning of the year, potentially setting up a veto from the president. The FTSE was up 0.5% yesterday but most o

IGAaronC

IGAaronC

Delaying the pain of uncertainty - APAC brief 15 Mar

Delaying the pain of uncertainty: The pain of uncertainty, when it comes to two of the world’s big macroeconomic issues, looks likely to persist for a little while yet. Two stories, to be elaborated on in a moment, defined market-headlines overnight: a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping won’t happen until at least April; while the UK House of Commons has voted overwhelmingly to extend the Brexit-deadline, though with no clear path forward from here. The fr

MaxIG

MaxIG

May there be hope for Brexit? Pound rallies after no-deal rejection - EMEA Brief 14 March

The pound rallied to a new high after British MP reject leaving the EU with a no-deal. As the rejection passed by 312 votes to 278, the pound gained 2% against the dollar, reaching new highs for the year of 1.3339, as investor's received the no-deal rejection as good news for the future of the British economy. Us stocks rose on Wednesday as strong economic data boosted tech shares. The S&P 500 saw gains for a third day in a row, closing 0.69% higher at 2,810.92. The Dow Jones and the

DanielaIG

DanielaIG

APAC brief 14 Mar

Traders see “goldilocks” conditions in US: Both European and US shares rallied overnight. For the latter, the term “goldilocks” has been bandied around. That is: growth in the US, though not as strong as it has been in the recent past, is still solid, while inflation risk is presently low, meaning the US Fed will likely remain in a neutral position. A reminder of this dynamic came in the second of two major inflation releases out of the US this week. PPI data showed a weaker than expected print,

MaxIG

MaxIG

No-Deal Brexit to be voted after May's deal rejection - EMEA Brief 13 Mar

The pound ticked higher after dropping on Tuesday after Theresa May’s amended Brexit deal rejection. Today’s vote in the UK parliament whether to leave the EU without a deal is unlikely to provide excessive pressure on the sterling in case the proposal is rejected, however downside risk exists. Cable was almost flat as of 7:30am GMT trading at 1.31069. The US dollar floated and yields fell on Tuesday after softer inflation data increased the possibility of more dovish policies from the Fe

IG-Andi

IG-Andi

Financials drag on the ASX - APAC brief 13 Mar

Financials drag on the ASX: The ASX200 was legged in the final stages of trade yesterday. It was led by a sell-off in major financial stocks, after a media address made by Australian Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, during which he announced the Liberal government would not pursue the eradication of trailing commissions for financial advisors and mortgage brokers, as prescribed by Kenneth Hayne QC in the final Banking Royal Commission report. It turned what was an otherwise solid day for the ASX200 o

MaxIG

MaxIG

May Secures 'legally binding changes' to her Brexit Deal; Pound Rallies - EMEA Brief 12 March

Theresa May has announced that she has secured "legally binding changes" to the withdrawal agreement ahead of the pivotal vote on her deal in the House of Commons this evening. Specifically, the changes mean that the Irish backstop would not "become permanent". The pound soared after the news broke rising to a high of $1.3290 before falling back down to its current level of $1.3208, still up over 2% from Monday's low. Boeing shares have fallen over 5% after the fatal plane crash in

GeorgeIG

GeorgeIG

Up, down, turnaround - APAC brief 12 Mar

Up, down, turnaround: It’s been a bipolar market of late. Global stocks are moving in unison, and have swung from broad-based losses on Friday, to broad-based gains overnight. US equities are naturally the exemplar and are a responsible for driving overall risk appetite. With an hour left in trade (and as a quick aside, Wall Street closes at 7am AEDT for the next few weeks) the S&P500 is up well over 1 per cent. It’s been a day of relatively low activity. However, breadth is expansive: over

MaxIG

MaxIG

BoE Tightens Bank Liquidity Controls - EMEA Brief 11 March

Amid the political uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the Bank of England has advised UK lenders to triple their holdings of liquid assets in the run-up to Brexit to prepare for a forecast market meltdown if the UK leaves the EU without a deal later this month. Banks are also being told to adjust their balance sheets on the assumption that they will not be able to swap sterling for USD. Worries over an economic slowdown intensified on Friday after US jobs data significantly missed forecasts,

JoeIG

JoeIG

Dividend Adjustments 11 Mar - 18 Mar

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 11 Mar 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral ad

MaxIG

MaxIG

Week US jobs data - APAC brief 11 Mar

US NFPs: The final bastion of global economic growth is showing cracks in it walls. Arguably last week’s key-release, US Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed market participants over the weekend, printing well below expectations. It wasn’t a clear-cut, poor print. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8 per cent and wage-growth climbed to 3.4 per cent. The shocker was the headline number: forecast to reveal a jobs-gain of 180,000, the US economy only added 20,000 last month. It’s given rise to concerns t

MaxIG

MaxIG

The EUR takes a hit as ECB is dovish - EMEA brief 08 March

The Euro was nearing a 21-month low yesterday as the ECB was perceived to be dovish after its speech, ahead of US jobs data to be released today. During Thursday's session the EURUSD hit $1.1176, its lowest since June 2017, as the ECB announced it had pushed back the first rate increase to at least 2020 and announced a new round of TLTRO funding for European Banks. China has reported worse than expected trade data for the month of February. Its dollar-denominated exports fell by 20.7 per

DanielaIG

DanielaIG

Huawei Sues The U.S. Government - EMEA Brief 07 March

Global tensions reach new heights as Chinese tech giant Huawei files a lawsuit against the U.S, claiming that a law that bans government agencies from buying the company's equipment is unconstitutional. This comes after Huawei's CFO also filed legal proceedings against Canada. Meanwhile, there has been a report that North Korea are moving to rebuild a nuclear missile site, following a break down last week in the summit between Trump and Kim Jong Un.  In Europe, there is the ECB's board me

JoeIG

JoeIG

Australia's slowdown - APAC brief 7 March

Australian data draws global interest: Australia’s remarkably weak growth figures captured attention, both locally and abroad. The numbers conveyed in yesterday’s GDP were truly disappointing. Growth in the final quarter of 2018 was a paltry 0.2 per cent, and after another set of revisions to previous data, the annualized growth rate fell to 2.3 per cent. Each figure was quite an undershoot of expectations: for one, economists were expecting the quarterly number to come-in-at 0.3 per cent in sea

MaxIG

MaxIG

Aon Plc considers $24 billion bid for rival Willis Tower Watson Plc - EMEA Brief 6 Mar

Trading in Asia was mixed as investors wait for more clarity on the US-China trade deal. The top performer was Shanghai Composite which was up 0.7% while Japan’s Topix was down 0.2%.  Gold prices edged lower as the greenback gained from stronger than expected economic data. Spot contracts hit $1287.34 at 5:00 am GMT, having been almost flat on the day, as can be seen on the IG Web Platform. What is the short- and mid-term fate of the gold bullion, as investors seem to be rushing to equiti

IG-Andi

IG-Andi

Trump states he will cooperate with House Judiciary Committee Investigation - EMEA Brief 05 Mar

Trump is subject of large-scale investigation by the House Judiciary Committee who have sent requests for documents to 81 individuals. The investigation will look into alleged obstruction of Justice, corruption and potential abuses of power.  Despite positive outlook of US and China trade war, as parties appear closer to reaching formal agreement, U.S stocks saw a downturn after positive opening. The S&P fell 0.4% to 2,792.62, The Dow tumbled 206.67 points to 25,819.65 and the Nasdaq

MichaelaIG

MichaelaIG

American stocks fall - APAC brief 5 March

American stocks fall: Wall Street looks poised to register its worst daily performance since the start of the year. The technical action was sweet: another early challenge of 2815 – the price ran slightly above that – before the bears swooned, and traders “pulled the trigger”. It’s been a day of selling since, with the S&P500 down 0.6 - 0.8 per cent, at time of writing. It’s nothing to be too concerned about, of course. This is nothing like the behaviour witness at the end of last year. It’s

MaxIG

MaxIG

US-China Trade Deal 'moving along nicely' - EMEA Brief 04 Mar

Reports over the weekend have indicated that the US and China are in the later stages of trade talk discussions in a deal which could see tariffs and sanctions lifted on both sides. Donald Trump tweeted over the weekend asking China to remove all tariffs on agricultural products and that trade talks are "moving along nicely".  Asian equity markets reacted positively to the trade talk progress; the Nikkei rose 1%, whilst the Shanghai Composite increased by 2.5% and the Hang Seng jumped 1.2

GeorgeIG

GeorgeIG

Economic stagnation; ECB and other central banks; range trading - DailyFX Key Themes

Growth Takes Center Stage with Peoples’ Congress and OECD Forecasts  Most investors and traders attempt to project into the future in order to take advantage of large market moves before they are priced in and the trend potential is spent. That is perhaps the most basic precept of speculation, yet it also brings with it a range of collective cognitive biases. One such mass psychological distortion is a prioritization of the means over the ends. When looking back to the 2008 financial crisis

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

The latest from Trump - APAC brief 4 Mar

Are things not so bad after all? It appears there’s emerged a self-reinforcing belief that economic fundamentals aren’t as bad as once thought. There’s not a simple binary that can be reduce out of this – a clear “risk-off” or “risk-on” signal. It’s clear there remains a general sense that the global economy is entering a soft-patch. But in that, is the key: slower growth is taken as granted, however the extent of such a slowdown is ostensibly being revised. There isn’t quite (just for the momen

MaxIG

MaxIG

Dividend Adjustments 4 Mar - 11 Mar

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 4 Mar 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neut

MaxIG

MaxIG

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