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EUR/GBP Likely to be Choppy as BOE-ECB Risks Unfold

KEY TALKING POINTS: EUR/GBP finds support as traders prepare for ECB and BOE meetings. GBP hawkish expectations leave ample room for disappointment.   EUR/GBP continues to trade with a bearish inclination as the pound remains supported by expectations that the Bank of England will need to step up its efforts to reduce monetary stimulus in its meeting next week. The pair has been struggling for the last month, having come off almost 3% since hitting a new two-month hig

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Equities Q4 Fundamental Forecast: Short-Term Uncertainties But Longer-Term Fortunes

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 Outlook China’s So-Called Lehman Moment Global Tapering Underway   Throughout the third quarter, there had been somewhat of a reversal in the reflation trade as concerns over the peak in the global growth lingered, alongside the continued spread of the Delta variant. However, despite this, life after lockdown continues as vaccination rates across the globe pick up and while the latest concerns stemming from China have catalysed majo

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GBP/AUD Price Outlook: Nearing Support After Sharp Falls, Inflation Jitters in Focus

GBP/AUD PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS: Rising inflation has become an important driverof foreign exchange rates recently but data from Australia Wednesday showed a surprisingly large fall year/year. By contrast, the scope for UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak to boost the economy in today’s UK Budget will likely be held back by increases in inflation that have raised the cost of servicing the national debt. That’s broadly positive for GBP/AUD as it approaches an important

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Facebook Share Price Attempting to Rebound Ahead of Q3 Earnings

WHEN DOES FACEBOOK REPORT EARNINGS? Facebook is set to release its Q3 financial results on 25 October, after the market closes. At the time of writing, expectations are pointing to a 32.1% increase in earnings per share to US$3.17, up from US$2.40 a year ago. FACEBOOK EARNINGS – WHAT TO EXPECT For the upcoming earnings release, the impact of Apple’s anti-tracking initiative on Facebook’s businesses will be closely assessed, as the management has previously cautioned of a larger im

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HSBC rides out China property storm with 74% profit jump, $2 bln buyback

HSBC rides out China property storm with 74% profit jump, $2 bln buyback   SINGAPORE/LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - HSBC (HSBA.L) shrugged off concerns about pandemic-related bad loans and property problems in China on Monday with a surprise 74% quarterly profit jump and a $2 billion share buyback. The British bank's profit growth was mainly driven by the release of cash reserves set aside in anticipation of pandemic-induced defaults, with HSBC's finance chief Ewen Stevenson tell

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Asian shares steady, dollar weak as traders await earnings

Asian shares steady, dollar weak as traders await earnings HONG KONG, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Asian shares started steady on Monday ahead of a week packed with major quarterly earnings announcements, while the dollar hovered near October lows after three weeks of risk-friendly sentiment hurt safe-haven currencies. HSBC (HSBA.L) and Facebook (FB.O) will both publish quarterly results on Monday, in Asian trading and late U.S. hours respectively.

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The global energy crisis explained

The global energy crisis explained In this article we break down the current global energy crisis and look at effects on commodity prices and inflation. Source: Bloomberg   Commodities Energy crisis Energy Inflation Price World energy consumption

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British Pound Outlook Undecided after BoE’s Inflation Warning and Mixed UK Data

British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook: November BoE meeting may see interest rates hiked. UK retail sales figures disappoint. UK October PMIs beat expectations.   Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill has warned that inflation could top 5% in the coming months, leaving the central bank in a ‘very uncomfortable place’. In comments to the Financial Times, Mr. Pill said that the November 4 BoE meeting is now ‘live’ for a potential rate hike from its current rate of

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Dividend Adjustments 25th October 2021 - 1st November 2021

Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 25th October 2021. These are projected dividends and likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made. Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. Amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted o

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Australian Dollar Holds Ground as Evergrande Makes a Payment. Can AUD/USD Move Up?

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, AUD/USD, US YIELDS, EVERGRANDE, RBA - TALKING POINTS The Australian Dollar saw early pressure before Evergrande made good. APAC equities moved higher on the news as sentiment turned positive. US yields rise as inflation fears grow. Will AU-US spreads drive AUD/USD?   Overnight, S&P 500 hit a record high while US Treasury yields backed off 2 basis points from 5-month highs. US 2-year break-evens implied an inflation rate of 3.22% at one st

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British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook: GBP/USD Struggling to Break Above 1.38

GBP/USD PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS: GBP/USD continues to find it difficult to break convincingly above 1.38, which is not just providing “round number” resistance but is also where an important trendline checks in. The latest UK public sector net borrowing (PSNB) figures were better than expected in September but haven’t changed expectations of an imminent UK interest rate increase.   GBP/USD STRUGGLING WITH RESISTANCE GBP/USD continues to find it difficult to brea

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Stocks at Risk as China-Taiwan Tension Eclipses Xi-Biden Summit

CHINA-US TENSION, TAIWAN, US DOLLAR, S&P 500, FED INTEREST RATE HIKE - TALKING POINTS: Xi-Biden summit likely only to achieve surface-level diplomatic breakthroughs. Competing global and regional priorities may prevent meaningful cooperation. S&P 500 at risk ahead of precarious holiday season, geopolitical uncertainty.   Despite surface-level attempts at Sino-US diplomacy, the reality of a bolder and more aggressive China will likely undermine future ta

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British Pound Q4 Forecast: Preparing the Ground for Interest Rate Hikes

GBP/USD PRICE, CHART, AND ANALYSIS: Interest rates to rise in 2022, boosting Sterling. Hard data remains key in Q4.   The era of UK Quantitative Easing (QE) is coming to an end and the Bank of England (BoE) may well start increasing interest rates in early 2022 as inflation begins to stalk the UK economy. The UK central bank will finish its GBP 895 billion bond-buying spree by the end of this year, effectively tightening monetary conditions and setting the course for

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FANG Stocks Update: Netflix Earnings Buzz, Facebook Rebrand & Margin Woes

FANGS ANALYSIS: Hit series ‘Squid Game’ expected to drive subscriber growth into year end. Facebook to consider name change in line with Zuckerberg’s ‘metaverse’ vision. FANG index reaches all-time high, remains elevated.   NETFLIX’S Q3 EARNINGS AS EXPECTED - HIT SERIES ‘SQUID GAME’ TO ELEVATE SUBSCRIBER COUNT The popular online streaming service reported an increase in revenue of 16% ($7.5 billion) for Q3 – in line with estimates. Much of the increase has

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FTSE 100 Price Outlook: UK Stocks Well Placed to Advance Further

FTSE 100 PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS: The FTSE 100 index of leading London-listed stocks is in a good position to climb further, helped by Wall Street strength, risk-on sentiment in the markets, earnings optimism and news of an unexpected drop in UK inflation. Those factors should outweigh continuing market expectations of an imminent tightening of UK monetary policy and bad Covid-19 data.   LONDON STOCKS UPSIDE BECKONS London’s FTSE 100 index is modestly lower in e

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Japanese Yen Jitters as US Treasury Yields Move Higher Amid Commodity Woes. More Yen Weakness Ahead?

JAPANESE YEN, US DOLLAR, USD/JPY, COAL, CHINA, ENERGY - TALKING POINTS The Japanese Yen continued lower with little resistance for now. China continues to address energy shortages, like everyone else. Higher yields and energy are Yen negative. Will USD/JPY break up?   The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc were the underperformers today as risk appetite remained healthy after more positive earnings results from the US. APAC equities were all in the green. Government

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