DAX

[HMB]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

As for adjusting the TP.  As price begins to get to something like 1.3 or 1.4 times your risk, move the stop up to just beneath that point.  Hopefully it will keep on going up past 1.5 times your risk.  If it moves past 2 times your risk, move it up to just below that point and so on.

ok.  moved the stop higher like you said.  so stop distance is like 5% or so, think that makes sense

 

[HMB]

..how much of my virtual capital should i allocate to this trade?

[dmedin]

3 minutes ago, HMB said:

..how much of my virtual capital should i allocate to this trade?

 

1 or 2 % maximum until you get comfortable with it ... never more than 5%

It may run on for days or weeks, so it might be better to use a future instead of cash if you don't want to be charged overnight funding costs. It's a few pence per night for a bet at the minimum size.

Could put a stop loss beneath the Pivot and TP at R2.  Although with a stop loss that large it might be too much of a risk.  

 

Edited September 16, 2020 by dmedin

[HMB]

ok, closed the trade and entered Dec future long instead (stop 12800).  (R2 here = closing/intraday ATH, I guess..?  will watch out for that..)

looking forward to the money rolling in...  happy to split the virtual demo funds...   

[HMB]

13 hours ago, HMB said:

(in real, I would usually at some point become impatient, increase exposure, and miss that the market started trending..  till another round of funding the account)

this morning it didn't work at all.  first missed the turn, then tried to jump on it, then reversed again...  it's not about taking the loss, it's being down which is the most uncomfortable thing...  hit my loss limit for today quickly, then.  wiped out yesterday's gains fully.  funny - think it feels very similar in the demo account - maybe because I just switched.  was incredibly tempted to continue - but now trying to take this as serious as possible in sim mode and call it a day (a bit earlier than planned...).  I'm like worrying I lose any "skill" if I take a one day break now....  think those are exactly the type of moments in which I made the fatally wrong decision in the past again and again (to not strictly stick to any kind of loss limits and continue, although already being emotionally messed up... - instead of sticking to the plan (if any...), taking a break and trying again with a cool head after a day or two     

[dmedin]

2 minutes ago, HMB said:

this morning it didn't work at all.  first missed the turn, then tried to jump on it, then reversed again...  it's not about taking the loss, it's being down which is the most uncomfortable thing...  hit my loss limit for today quickly, then.  wiped out yesterday's gains fully.  funny - think it feels very similar in the demo account - maybe because I just switched.  was incredibly tempted to continue - but now trying to take this as serious as possible in sim mode and call it a day (a bit earlier than planned...).  I'm like worrying I lose any "skill" if I take a one day break now....  think those are exactly the type of moments in which I made the fatally wrong decision in the past again and again (to not strictly stick to any kind of loss limits and continue, although already being emotionally messed up... - instead of sticking to the plan (if any...), taking a break and trying again with a cool head after a day or two     

 

 

lol, the only people who benefit from scatter trading like that are IG - commissions and spreads.  

Edited September 16, 2020 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

14 minutes ago, HMB said:

this morning it didn't work at all.  first missed the turn, then tried to jump on it, then reversed again...  it's not about taking the loss, it's being down which is the most uncomfortable thing...  hit my loss limit for today quickly, then.  wiped out yesterday's gain ...     

think you might want to take another look at your trend indicator.

you started going long at 8:30 and continued through to 8:50 when you switched to shorts.

[HMB]

6 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

think you might want to take another look at your trend indicator.

you started going long at 8:30 and continued through to 8:50 when you switched to shorts.

many thanks! - great observation - will take my time to analyze this in more detail later

[HMB]

5 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

think you might want to take another look at your trend indicator.

you started going long at 8:30 and continued through to 8:50 when you switched to shorts.

interesting...  inspired by your comment and some of dmedin's recent feedback, I compared the parabolic SAR for a roughly 90 minutes period yesterday when it worked well with the 30 minutes before the market kicked me out today.  using 1m and default settings, there's a very obvious difference:  in the successful period I went only short when the PSAR was red, and long when it was green, today I did (by coincidence) the opposite.  But the worst loss came when I went short although standard RSI showed a buy signal.  think these are two simple conditions to add, will try it out  (still looking at other oscillators, but find RSI relatively easy to understand - it's just a smoothed ratio of average gain to (average gain + average loss) in %) 

[dmedin]

Proper use of an oscillator is as follows: the stochastic makes a higher low while price makes a lower low, this is a divergence and you then use the crossing above 20 to buy

 

[dmedin]

This is a positive divergence and a hammer candle giving a long entry signal with a stop below the hammer

 

[dmedin]

Come on Tom.🧐

[dmedin]

You can use the triple EMA crossover on 1 minute timeframe too

 

[dmedin]

6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Come on Tom.🧐

He's too busy making millions from his trading

[dmedin]

See, price goes much higher but the stochastic doesn't make a higher high

[dmedin]

Apropos of which, Nasdaq absolutely soiled it breeches after making this divergence.  Phew, what a stinker!

 

[dmedin]

Teach us Tom!

[HMB]

thanks dmedin - will review this...  on the 10 sec chart the last 10 minutes look a bit like Whipsaw Wednesday to me... 

1 minute chart would have made more sense

the right trade would have been long with a wider stop earlier... 

focusing on money management rules:  don't let a profitable trade turn against you - close at least with some minimum profit...  if there's an obvious breakout, let it run and move the stop...

traded too much on this - after cheating myself by adding yesterday's winnings to today's loss limit - so hit that as well.. calling it a day (again...)

not good

 

 

[Caseynotes]

1 hour ago, HMB said:

interesting...  inspired by your comment and some of dmedin's recent feedback, I compared the parabolic SAR for a roughly 90 minutes period yesterday when it worked well with the 30 minutes before the market kicked me out today.  using 1m and default settings, there's a very obvious difference:  in the successful period I went only short when the PSAR was red, and long when it was green, today I did (by coincidence) the opposite.  But the worst loss came when I went short although standard RSI showed a buy signal.  think these are two simple conditions to add, will try it out  (still looking at other oscillators, but find RSI relatively easy to understand - it's just a smoothed ratio of average gain to (average gain + average loss) in %) 

Check the MA on shorter time frames for clues as to trend change of direction or sharpen the setting on a different chart of same time frame.

You need 1 indicator for trend direction and force (degree of slope) and a sharper indicator for a trigger. I would use RSI for trend not trigger, same for psar.

 

Edited September 16, 2020 by Caseynotes

[HMB]

this looks like another retail rip off by Wall Street to me...:  range widening = stop hunting after the open.  then fake bottom, and breakthrough for more stop hunting...  then range widening..  then another top  (probably fake..) and bottom above the earlier low  (risky...)

 

lesson: don't trade before 11:30 am Eastern...

 

[HMB]

6 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Check the MA on shorter time frames for clues as to trend change of direction or sharpen the setting on a different chart of same time frame.

You need 1 indicator for trend direction and force (degree of slope) and a sharper indicator for a trigger. I would use RSI for trend not trigger, same for psar.

 

interesting, thanks - using PSAR for trend makes sense to me at this stage, that's what I want to do, RSI worked horribly on the 10 sec chart, better on one min chart, want to keep watching it and use as a restriction: don't go short/long when it shows a buy/sell signal

at this stage I'll take a step back and put more focus on money/risk management rules again, in particular three which  I've hopefully learned quite well the last two days:

 - for the time being, better never increase exposure once trade open, stick to minimum size, unless profit already locked in with (guaranteed) stop

 - never let a winning trade turn against you, better close with at least a small profit before it moves back through breakeven  (also mentioned in one of the videos you shared), if possible

 - if obvious breakout, lock in profit with stop adjustment and let it run (a while...)

and of course strictly adhere to daily loss limits..

staying away today in anticipation of directionless markets waiting for Fed would have been wise, I guess...

will keep trying the short-term price action trades, but maybe better to use the risk capital for fewer trades with wider stops when opportunities seem clearer... not sure, (yet)  

 

 

 

[HMB]

16 minutes ago, HMB said:

this looks like another retail rip off by Wall Street to me...:  range widening = stop hunting after the open.  then fake bottom, and breakthrough for more stop hunting...  then range widening..  then another top  (probably fake..) and bottom above the earlier low  (risky...)

 

lesson: don't trade before 11:30 am Eastern...

 

 

...through the newest fake bottom while I was writing...:

 

[AndrewS]

10 hours ago, HMB said:

i

will keep trying the short-term price action trades, but maybe better to use the risk capital for fewer trades with wider stops when opportunities seem clearer... not sure, (yet)  

 

 

 

 

I would not try to give advice to someone with an average holding time of 1 minute because I think anyone attempting that should not be in need of advice. I doubt I could be profitable with such a short holding time.

I am profitable with an average holding time of 15 minutes but have found that it is very onerous and not optimal. At present my average holding time is about 1 hour scaling into and out of a swing trade. Any changes to money management need to be forward tested because you may not be able to implement the change in practice.

[jlz]

2 hours ago, AndrewS said:

 

I would not try to give advice to someone with an average holding time of 1 minute because I think anyone attempting that should not be in need of advice. I doubt I could be profitable with such a short holding time.

@HMB

Just in case it could improve anything, this is a message that I get from IG on my dashboard.

I personally think that shorter time frames are bound to failure. I can' prove it, I am just talking from my own experience. It is difficult to let your trades run over a few days because of the DFB fee but in the long run it pays out.

[HMB]

3 hours ago, AndrewS said:

 

I would not try to give advice to someone with an average holding time of 1 minute because I think anyone attempting that should not be in need of advice. I doubt I could be profitable with such a short holding time.

I am profitable with an average holding time of 15 minutes but have found that it is very onerous and not optimal. At present my average holding time is about 1 hour scaling into and out of a swing trade. Any changes to money management need to be forward tested because you may not be able to implement the change in practice.

it worked for me a times, but much more often it did not and ended badly.  currently trying in demo to identify typical setups with the approach having a relatively high success probability - I might not find any..

[HMB]

1 hour ago, jlz said:

@HMB

Just in case it could improve anything, this is a message that I get from IG on my dashboard.

I personally think that shorter time frames are bound to failure. I can' prove it, I am just talking from my own experience. It is difficult to let your trades run over a few days because of the DFB fee but in the long run it pays out.

I do not at all disagree with you..  for me personally shorter time frames definitely proved to be more dangerous.  The reasons are probably that one gets more signals, there is more action, you might have a few successful minutes...  so more stimuli for your brain - and also more frequent frustrating moments.  

I'm feeling this also in demo - which I really started using only a few days ago - to a surprisingly similar extent as before in live - that changed my view about demo trading quite a bit.

So using this now not only to test a trading strategy (that might turn out to be futile) but also to practice being aware of "emotional signals" and considering more consciously to act on them or not in each case (and using shorter intervals simply gives more practice opportunities)

 

[jlz]

4 minutes ago, HMB said:

I do not at all disagree with you..  for me personally shorter time frames definitely proved to be more dangerous.  The reasons are probably that one gets more signals, there is more action, you might have a few successful minutes...  so more stimuli for your brain - and also more frequent frustrating moments.  

I'm feeling this also in demo - which I really started using only a few days ago - to a surprisingly similar extent as before in live - that changed my view about demo trading quite a bit.

So using this now not only to test a trading strategy (that might turn out to be futile) but also to practice being aware of "emotional signals" and considering more consciously to act on them or not in each case (and using shorter intervals simply gives more practice opportunities)

 

I normally download datasets to test my techniques before trying them on the demo platform. Sometimes the markets are not giving you the action that you need to test your entries.

My approach is  datasets locally -> demo account -> live account

I like this data feed:

https://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/historical/

They have the major markets that we normally play on. Quite useful to test things out.

[HMB]

1 minute ago, jlz said:

I normally download datasets to test my techniques before trying them on the demo platform. Sometimes the markets are not giving you the action that you need to test your entries.

My approach is  datasets locally -> demo account -> live account

I like this data feed:

https://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/historical/

They have the major markets that we normally play on. Quite useful to test things out.

thank you, will have a look at it.

[dmedin]

2 hours ago, HMB said:

much more often it did not and ended badly.

 

Have any of these guys actually shown you a working 'system' yet?  And if they somehow did, would you copy it?  

Are you aware that no retail traders are making money from trading ... ? 

[jlz]

20 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

Have any of these guys actually shown you a working 'system' yet?  And if they somehow did, would you copy it?  

Are you aware that no retail traders are making money from trading ... ? 

Change the record, it is broken.