FX market, manipulated?

[steamedchicken]

Hey everyone,

 

I'm new to trading - a colleague of mine introduced me to FX and babypips, and that's pretty much how I started. I've been winning and losing ever since I started 6 months ago. On my losing days it feels like I don't know a single thing about the market and on my winning days it's almost like as if I know what the market is going to do. Anyway, I've met a couple of traders who shared the same sentiments - that they would much rather spend their time on options or futures as they think that the FX market is heavily manipulated. Just want to see if there's anyone out here actually making a decent living out of day-trading with the FX market? 

 

Thanks and have a good one

 

Sincerely looking for hope,

steamedchicken

[raymondwu]

Most of the time when I start a position, the marcket will act quickly against me a bit. Strange is it?

 

 

[CharlotteIG]

On 19/11/2020 at 09:13, steamedchicken said:

Hey everyone,

 

I'm new to trading - a colleague of mine introduced me to FX and babypips, and that's pretty much how I started. I've been winning and losing ever since I started 6 months ago. On my losing days it feels like I don't know a single thing about the market and on my winning days it's almost like as if I know what the market is going to do. Anyway, I've met a couple of traders who shared the same sentiments - that they would much rather spend their time on options or futures as they think that the FX market is heavily manipulated. Just want to see if there's anyone out here actually making a decent living out of day-trading with the FX market? 

 

Thanks and have a good one

 

Sincerely looking for hope,

steamedchicken

 

On 28/11/2020 at 13:40, raymondwu said:

Most of the time when I start a position, the marcket will act quickly against me a bit. Strange is it?

 

 

Hey both, 

The FX prices we use are taken from 12 currency providers. We pick the best bid and offer from both then wrap our spread around this.  

FX is very fast pace and can be extremely volatile when market news comes out. 

 

[THT]

Most markets are dominated by very very big players, I've watched the markets for over 20 years and not even governments can manipulate markets (They've openly tried to save their currencies!) 

If the very very big players in the markets wanted to shift market direction for a short time of course they could - they could join forces and form a cartel to do so, they did this with Libor I think

One good thing would be to study the Commitment of Traders reports and Indicators - It show's the commercials vs people like you and I and the positions they hold in history at the turns (the pro's get caught out too!) 

Everyone knows most people shove a stop under a recent swing low - If markets were truly manipulated then EVERY swing low and swing high would just be blitzed all the time and you'd never have trends, the fact that trends do happen tell you something else is happening

My own personal thoughts are that markets are moving to some unknown science based formula that NO-ONE has discovered - I've managed to crack the code of when the big turns will happen in date/Time format but not the all important price aspect and its this that we all make profits or losses from

When we trade we slot in to where price is on its journey and because we don't know if a pullback is definitely happening or not it becomes a gamble  

Take 5 mins to think about this as it will help you to understand why sometimes no-one is able to explain why the market stopped at a certain place, reversed and hit our stops!!

"Markets could be running on a 3 or 4 Dimensional format - We're all FORCED to look at price action on a static 2 Dimensional chart - change your perception and things look a bit different

 

[steamedchicken]

Hey THT,

 

Thank you so much for the well-thought out response! Really appreciate it - it's nice to see that there are people like you out there still willing to lend the newbies a hand. I'll definitely have a good think about what you said. So far I'm currently on breakeven

[steamedchicken]

Btw, that's a really sweet theory you have there!

[Augusto77]

The FX market is too big, it moves trillions and it´s hard to think it can be manipulated just in one side. Remember that currencies are a key factor for countries, even if the central banks say it´s not on their mandate, it has big influence on inflation, exports and imports, etc. We have comercial and speculators. Comercial will trade for multiple reasons, but not necesary to get advantage of a few pips win, they do it as a colateral for other things. They may hedge due to options, protect themselfs if they trade commodities, etc. Does are the big players, but still it´s hard to manipulate. I do remember the case with Soros and the british pound, but that was more of a take advantage than a manipulation itself. You can check in on youtube, a good story for any trader to hear. 

 

Hope this helps,

Augusto

[Nalda]

thankyou for this question and great replies

[THT]

On 02/02/2021 at 16:24, steamedchicken said:

Hey THT,

 

Thank you so much for the well-thought out response! Really appreciate it - it's nice to see that there are people like you out there still willing to lend the newbies a hand. I'll definitely have a good think about what you said. So far I'm currently on breakeven

Missed this - you need to make sure you quote unless it gets lost in the room

Governments have tried to manipulate FX markets and failed - there will be "cartel" trades between the banks, it will never be admitted as its Illegal, but I'm willing to bet it happens occasionally

That being said - Markets aren't doing what you think they are doing, people think that after x years of experience you can say markets going to do this and hit that price level there and then reverse to x and then.......It just can't be done

Trading is exceptionally hard - whatever you choose to trade - trading requires probabilistic analysis  and you need a method of trading that actually works (most of the **** out there on "official" sites just does not work in the real world I'm afraid

All IG do is pool the best FX rates for us to trade - the reason people lose is because of themselves not the market and that is most likely that they are doing something materially wrong or their method does not work - once you find a method that actually works, the manipulation is from YOU against the market  

[Rintel]

3 hours ago, THT said:

Missed this - you need to make sure you quote unless it gets lost in the room

Governments have tried to manipulate FX markets and failed - there will be "cartel" trades between the banks, it will never be admitted as its Illegal, but I'm willing to bet it happens occasionally

That being said - Markets aren't doing what you think they are doing, people think that after x years of experience you can say markets going to do this and hit that price level there and then reverse to x and then.......It just can't be done

Trading is exceptionally hard - whatever you choose to trade - trading requires probabilistic analysis  and you need a method of trading that actually works (most of the **** out there on "official" sites just does not work in the real world I'm afraid

All IG do is pool the best FX rates for us to trade - the reason people lose is because of themselves not the market and that is most likely that they are doing something materially wrong or their method does not work - once you find a method that actually works, the manipulation is from YOU against the market  

Spot on. The FX market is “influenced by policy makers through the purchase or sales of bonds  “ their mandate is to keep the confidence in their respective economies as high as possible.
 

That confidence is what the Fiat monetary system is based on, the moment that goes the system evaporates. If you recall a few years ago during Theresa Mays government, the key phrase was strong and stable? . That's their mandate. They can't let a currency move too far towards one extreme or the other.
 

  So if you wana make money on fx you need to extend your time horizon or take the other position when things go too far into one extreme. I am only 32 but remember I  the dollar decline and the dollar inflation story that has been around for along time now. It's the same old story once you realise it's the new cycle, you learn to side step it and focus on what's important and that's the economy. Economic strength expresses itself in currency strength. Focus on that and you will get the big moces right. 

[Rintel]

Moves*

[Nalda]

@Courage

Thanks for that input, I am following this one. Being a newbie what news days and countries are best to look out for and what days are the big mover news days. Thanks

[Caseynotes]

3 hours ago, Nalda said:

@Courage

Thanks for that input, I am following this one. Being a newbie what news days and countries are best to look out for and what days are the big mover news days. Thanks

Hi, you need an econ calendar, take your pick;

Top 11 Forex Calendars in 2020 (earnforex.com)

[RFSmithers]

On 28/11/2020 at 05:40, raymondwu said:

Most of the time when I start a position, the marcket will act quickly against me a bit. Strange is it?

 

 

Not strange. It is normal for me also on another platform (not sure about IG, I just joined so haven't started live trading yet)  I trade forex. Maybe it has to do with the broker (market maker) wanting its clients to stay in the trade for awhile, not sure, but this also can't be the case because when I check the charts with another software connected to another broker the price movements and volume are the same as with the broker I made the trade.  I've had some really weird trades where there was almost zero price action for like 20 bars and as soon as I place a huge trade (well not huge in respect to the forex market, but huge for the amount I usually trade) there is tremendous price action and volume on the charts.  Being that the forex market does trillions in transactions a day my "little" trade shouldn't have this type of effect on the markets so I literally have no clue what goes on.  Always makes me a little suspicious. If anyone has any explanation for this phenomenon I would appreciate some insight into why this happens. The movement on the charts away from my trades aren't just small amounts they are 10+ pips; again my "tiny" trade shouldn't be moving the whole market in this way but it does because I have proof in the charts. I even save the trade date and time so it could be replayed on trading software.

Edited June 16, 2021 by RFSmithers

[RFSmithers]

Anyway, like the other posts say, the forex market is a trillion dollar market and for any one participant to manipulate the market is almost impossible, so there is probably some sort of explanation for the phenomenon, but I still haven't found an answer yet.  I've also just learned to live with it through my years of trading forex.

[krader]

True. FX markets may be too large to manipulate in the traditional sense. BUT big players also have clout and can set the agenda for the financial press(mostly in their pockets). They do make certain headlines appear through their minions in the media which will move the markets. They can spread false news, rumours, create favourable or unfavourable events and pay journalists and so called analysts. This may be a controvertial view but it is my view nevertheless.

[jlz]

For those who always say: "the markets quickly act against me, every time I open a position"

Stop using technical analysis. Specially if it is provided by your broker. They are lagging indicators and they always give signals that are late to the action. 

Of course the market will act against you, your entries are late.