Indices

[Caseynotes]

turned into a pantomime;

 

[Caseynotes]

this is comedy gold;

[Caseynotes]

without doubt the most hilarious FOMC I've ever seen;

[Caseynotes]

Start of a new month so the monthly chart recap. Ftse was doing so well and still above the broken monthly chart resistance level, Dow puts in a pause bar, Dax has an inside bar in a uptrend and Nikkei still consolidating.

UK rate decision today and US NFP tomorrow.

[nit2wynit]

6 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

UK rate decision today and US NFP tomorrow.

When is this to be expected Casey?  Thanks

[WallStFoxy]

 

19 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

When is this to be expected Casey?  Thanks

 

@nit2wynit

12:00		High	UNITED KINGDOM-BOE RATE DECISION - BOE BANK RATE		Aug. 2019	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
13:30		High	UNITED STATES-JOBLESS CLAIMS - INITIAL CLAIMS		w/o Jul. 22, 2019	214 k	206 k	–
15:00		High	US ISM Manufacturing PMI		Jul. 2019	52	51.7	–
15:00		High	US ISM Prices Paid

[nit2wynit]

4 minutes ago, Foxy said:

 

 

@nit2wynit

12:00		High	UNITED KINGDOM-BOE RATE DECISION - BOE BANK RATE		Aug. 2019	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
13:30		High	UNITED STATES-JOBLESS CLAIMS - INITIAL CLAIMS		w/o Jul. 22, 2019	214 k	206 k	–
15:00		High	US ISM Manufacturing PMI		Jul. 2019	52	51.7	–
15:00		High	US ISM Prices Paid

Oh, Thanks Foxy.  It's happened already?

It's clear to me now more than ever that I need to focus less on placing trades and more on the actual market and how it's all operating.

Where do I start?  Is there something I can read?  I Readers Digest of the Fundamentals?

Thanks

[Caseynotes]

16 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

When is this to be expected Casey?  Thanks

UK rate decision was today at  12pm, no change.

US NFP is tomorrow at 1:30pm and forecast to be 164K, Wednesday's ADP nfp was 156k, 6k higher than forecast.

NFP is the second biggest date on the calendar (just behind FOMC).

Though there is a whole mass of data released the 3 most important numbers are nfp, average hourly earnings increase and unemployment rate.

As usual it's the unexpected that causes the stir. 

[dmedin]

1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

Where do I start? 

 

John J. Murphy, 'Technical analysis'

[Caseynotes]

7 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Where do I start?  Is there something I can read?  I Readers Digest of the Fundamentals?

best place to start is just to get into the habit of checking an econ calendar every morning, you will learn as you travel through the cycles.

https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php#detail=102325

[nit2wynit]

Any insight into the direction of the FTSE?

 

Thanks

[Caseynotes]

 

11 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Any insight into the direction of the FTSE?

 

Thanks

the ftse was getting a free ride up on the back of the plunging £ as Boris was sounding tough and increasing the odds for a no-deal Brexit but he's been back peddling just lately so ftse has come off a bit and then was hit like all the indices on yesterday's fomc.  Today is stabilising/consolidating in line with the others as is the £ since 8am so waiting for the US market open at 2:30 for a push in either direction.

[dmedin]

2 hours ago, nit2wynit said:

Any insight into the direction of the FTSE?

 

Thanks

Maybies up, maybies down ... maybies nor up nor down ... maybe the Grand Old Duke o' York knows  

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Maybies up, maybies down ... maybies nor up nor down ... maybe the Grand Old Duke o' York knows  

Confirm direction before looking to execute, don't settle for 'maybes'.

[nit2wynit]

2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Confirm direction before looking to execute, don't settle for 'maybes'.

Higher Highs Higher Low's??

Though as Usual I anticipate a Drop to S1.

Or was it a Spike to R1....Not sure now lol.

[nit2wynit]

Christ, it's going to rocket!!!  It's like a coiled spring

Edited August 1, 2019 by nit2wynit

[Caseynotes]

 

6 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Higher Highs Higher Low's??

Though as Usual I anticipate a Drop to S1.

Or was it a Spike to R1....Not sure now lol.

need more edukayshun, resistance is broken when all the sellers have been cleared out, support is broken when all the buyers have been cleared out. you are not big enough to do the 'clearing out' so sit and wait for a result and join the triumphant march on to the next battle ground. order flow.

[Caseynotes]

19 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

 

need more edukayshun, resistance is broken when all the sellers have been cleared out, support is broken when all the buyers have been cleared out. you are not big enough to do the 'clearing out' so sit and wait for a result and join the triumphant march on to the next battle ground. order flow.

And look, the next battle ground was R1, who would have guessed it.

[dmedin]

59 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

And look, the next battle ground was R1, who would have guessed it.

 

How did you trade it though?  The one on the left shows a break above R1 then a fall back down.  The one on the right shows a sustained break for one candlestick period.  So, if you are trading a breakout from R1 you lose 50% and win 50%.  Not great odds really.  If you wait for a pullback, then you miss all of the substantial breakout and get very little.  Tricky.  Difficult to call.

[nit2wynit]

Been out in the sunshine on my bike.  What did i miss?

[dmedin]

15 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Been out in the sunshine on my bike.  What did i miss?

 

Well, on the plus side you got some exercise, enjoyed the weather and lived a good life.  On the other hand you missed the misery, bitterness and utter futility of day trading on financial markets.

[nit2wynit]

11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Well, on the plus side you got some exercise, enjoyed the weather and lived a good life.  On the other hand you missed the misery, bitterness and utter futility of day trading on financial markets.

Oh, I made £20 on the FTSE in the consolidation area

Currently waiting on 2U.Inc to deliver.....Was up £7 earlier but took it all back to -£7 now hopefully bringing it back to Zero and into profit.  Been holding on to it since 3.20 lol.  Hopefully I'll take a tenner from it.

 

[Caseynotes]

Trump announces additional tariffs on China, 10% added on $300 Bln of goods starting Sept1.  

M1 Dow chart;

[Caseynotes]

1 hour ago, dmedin said:

 

How did you trade it though?  The one on the left shows a break above R1 then a fall back down.  The one on the right shows a sustained break for one candlestick period.  So, if you are trading a breakout from R1 you lose 50% and win 50%.  Not great odds really.  If you wait for a pullback, then you miss all of the substantial breakout and get very little.  Tricky.  Difficult to call.

I use the H1 to spot levels and direction, I put them side by side because Dow often is a leading indicator for Dax, I would look for entries on the M1, M5 or even the M15 but no higher than that for intraday. If it looks a bit choppy as it did for Dax today I'd use set amount targets on promising looking pullbacks between levels.

 

[WallStFoxy]

1 hour ago, nit2wynit said:

Been out in the sunshine on my bike.  What did i miss?

@nit2wynit

I just shorted wall st. then went to the shop, when I got back I was 423 point up. I closed out 'n' now havin a beer. 👿

[Caseynotes]

Gold and Oil;

[Caseynotes]

Trump makes sure there will be more rate cuts this year lol.

Dax and Dow H1;

[nit2wynit]

1 hour ago, Foxy said:

I just shorted wall st. then went to the shop, when I got back I was 423 point up. I closed out 'n' now havin a beer. 👿

Nice, hopefully I'll catch the next one.

[WallStFoxy]

18 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Nice, hopefully I'll catch the next one.

@nit2wynit

Hope so, you've put the work in!! 👿

[dmedin]

3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

I use the H1 to spot levels and direction, I put them side by side because Dow often is a leading indicator for Dax, I would look for entries on the M1, M5 or even the M15 but no higher than that for intraday. If it looks a bit choppy as it did for Dax today I'd use set amount targets on promising looking pullbacks between levels.

 

'Even the M15' lol.  15 minutes is about as low as I would contemplate going, and even then I feel it gives me signals to exit far too soon.