Jump to content

Indices


Recommended Posts

Interesting report from DailyFX yesterday (relates to the above post).

"THE STARS HAVE ALIGNED FOR A STOCK MARKET BREAKOUT IF EARNINGS CAN IMPRESS"

"The recent US-China trade war developments have ushered in a calm atmosphere for the three major US indices, as volatility slips to notable lows – in a month where it is historically highest. That calm, however, has laid the groundwork for a potential break higher in the week ahead as market participants are allowed to shift their focus to earnings season."

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2019/10/18/The-Stars-Have-Aligned-for-a-Stock-Market-Breakout-if-Earnings-Can-Impress.html?QPID=30472&CHID=9

Also good to see someone using implied volatility to give real-time support and resistance levels as determined by actual trades placed in the futures market.

image.png.2bb6c338302b63c4c51ca022c19d6bd7.png

 

Link to comment

Dax trying to hang onto the monthly chart resistance level, Dow keeps the all time high in sight but only durable goods on the calendar later in the week so needs a push from some trade war news. Ftse distracted by the wild cable swings while ASX contemplates the continuing iron ore down trend.

Daily charts;

image.thumb.png.d2c45430adaaacfa2f16c2200dd55ea5.png

Link to comment

Dow trying to push up from near term support around 26730 and near term resistance ahead at 27123.

Dax has cleared key resistance at 12660 and looking to break Thursday's high 12817.

Brexit vote today at 7pm should excite Ftse and gbp and ASX attempting to catch up after falling back on poor China data.

image.thumb.png.4be479b6b4cbf783e74cd30a1a08f601.png

Link to comment

We've got a bounce off the Fib, Wall Street looks bullish.  Boeing rebounding yet again - it's just too **** big to fail.  Never mind several hundred people dead because of the company's negligence.  :)

My stop is below 23.6% and my limit is at 27,403.

DJI-Daily.thumb.png.dfbb4f104a1e3d9159dbe31b926418a8.png

Link to comment

Dow dips below near term support overnight. Big earnings day with Boeing and Cat reporting pre US market and Microsoft reporting after close. Brexit stalemate continues with a general election now on the agenda while Dax sits on the monthly chart resistance level. 

Earnings likely to be the driver today.

Daily charts;

image.thumb.png.994dcb2441255fe48f4513a7a5f2e7b6.png

 

Link to comment

Dax, Ftse and ASX had a strong day yesterday, Ftse and Dax testing near term resistance. Dow started badly with some weak earnings figures yesterday pre-market open but recovered well. Markets will be watching the EU and US Flash (early release) PMIs today, the consensus is for improvement after a series of recent monthly misses.

image.thumb.png.0c3f2951afd932aa6176944fe20ec974.png

image.thumb.png.9835b8a907ceed503ba3b9b8d4c8b775.png

Link to comment

Strong day yesterday, S&P breaking the ATH, Dow not far behind and emerging markets continue the breakout of the down trend.

https://www.topdowncharts.com/single-post/2019/10/29/Global-Equities-The-New-Bull-Market

"Bottom line: based on 3 different breadth indicators for global equities, we have seen a clear and classic picture of a new cyclical bull market getting underway."

image.thumb.png.7b9d8b2576629d2149a959b16f39d309.png

image.thumb.png.015bc689b65e85133dc3400ad6c29d4a.png

image.thumb.png.295d5f359567940c8eb07ebb319fb8f7.png

  • Great! 1
Link to comment
1 hour ago, dmedin said:

We should be looking for the ATHs to get tested as support now?

There was a clear and strong push through the S&P ATH, only strong players can cause that with constant buying of the highs shows they are confident. They will likely defend their stops though where those stops might be is difficult to know as they could well be quite large. 

The expectancy is for a rate cut tomorrow so likely to be caution until confirmed as run away S&P could change the FOMC's mind. Today's US open should be interesting.

image.thumb.png.46f4814b220bc93862d098b999b26135.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
1 hour ago, dmedin said:

 

 

As a 'best seller' he must surely have been 'cashing in' with his books and his talks.

yes, and no end of customers. S&P passes through the ATH (again) so IG clients move evermore into shorts, now at 78% short.

The market goes up the crowd goes short, you can see why a contrarian view is so popular.

image.png.4ff0e2af5be37538f759015647846d38.png

image.thumb.png.1f4529c149520dc408a770ae01331a1a.png 

Link to comment

Good earnings results from Apple and Facebook plus the expected rate cut push the S&P higher, Dax and Dow reach resistance. Ftse unable to push through near term resistance and ASX not liking the cancellation of the Chile summit where a US/Chine trade deal was expected to be signed, plus news China production has fallen to it's lowest level for 3 and a half years.

Euro Stoxx600 breaking out of it's long term down trend.

(note chart order change around)

image.thumb.png.b27b06372470176a3d2170e3b062da39.png

 

image.thumb.png.482ab231b182f6877c92302180d2abd1.png

image.thumb.png.3780818ec18b44667bc3d925aaa0b4a3.png

 

 

 

Edited by Caseynotes
Link to comment
On 29/10/2019 at 14:26, Caseynotes said:

yes, and no end of customers. S&P passes through the ATH (again) so IG clients move evermore into shorts, now at 78% short.

The market goes up the crowd goes short, you can see why a contrarian view is so popular.

image.png.4ff0e2af5be37538f759015647846d38.png

image.thumb.png.1f4529c149520dc408a770ae01331a1a.png 

And yes, retail have done it again, the S&P breaks out into new highs so more retail traders have gone short.

78% yesterday afternoon, now at 80%.

Er, sell the highs right? no, not if there are continuous new highs (= trend). 

Client sentiment data in action as a leading contrarian indicator. 

image.png.641577a197e5fecffe31684c405201d1.png

  • Great! 1
Link to comment

Sebastian Sienkiewicz @Amdalleq

9h

"Wow, 73% of the S&P 500 companies which reported earnings so far beat their estimates (actual Earnings Per Share higher than mean forecast). Highest percentage since 2006. It seems to me like the forecasts were lowered too much.. 40% of the S&P companies reported so far"

image.png.f984b849c771a66f65834022bd163a17.png

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • image.png

  • Posts

    • The integration of AI into metaverse can be seen as a transformative shift. While companies leverage on AI to streamline creation process and enhance user experience, the integration of AI within the metaverse facilitates smooth interactions, providing users with instant information. In ROGin AI is a platform that combines the strengths of both technologies to offer wide financial services, ranging from cryptocurrency investment to NFT trading; an earning service that gives users access to simplified asset management, and a social trading platform that enhances users investment choices.  Its ecosystem boasts of vast features that have been integrated to enhance user experience, including features like Web3 wallet, reward system, governance etc. ROGin AI tokenomics, another core part of its ecosystem drives it growth, having burned 1.8bn out of 2bn tokens initial issuance, shrinking the total number of tokens issued to 200m. With ROG now about to list on Bitget on 19th June 2024, a high demand and potential surge could be in the offing.
    • Frankly, it's a relief to know that Nvidia is more valuable than the entire German stock exchange. Yes, there is room for it to grow and it's banking on automation to help it do so, but is it really worth all of German equities? Probably not. It's a company that manufactures chips, like Intel or AMD or Huawei or Qualcomm. It's a 2024 version of Cisco systems. The price is, like most on the Nasdaq, speculative. It's trading at a p/e of 62. Sixty two.  AI has been a real boon to the NASDAQ, though actually in real world use cases it's been a bit less than impressive. From personal experience anyway. More hype than substance. Chat GPT being especially disappointing and is getting dumber the longer it is being gatekept and limited. However, having lived through the original dot com bubble, nothing should surprise where imaginative valuations are concerned. This time appears similar. A seeming relentless unstoppable race into price discovery. World use cases that seem to negate the need for people to do any work (so who's going to pay for whatever services are being offered?)       Sure AI has and indeed will be integral to our future. But we could be hyper-focusing ourselves into a compromising dilemma on the use case for actual humans, for example. Is Apple worth the 2 trillion bucks the stock price says it is, now it is using ChatGPT AI in it's new devices? Again I return to my use case examples with Chat GPT where it regularly tells me it can't help. Ok, I can have existential debates with Claude from Anthropic about the evolution of AI. But can it help with strategy trading Gold, for example? There it becomes resolutely mute. Can it or will it create software (EA's) for MT4/5 platforms based on predetermined strategy or confluence of strategies? Or integrate strategy for the purpose of gaming out possibilities? That would be a Nope.  Negatory. No can do. Long way to go then. Long way. The prices however, would indicate all of this and virtual paradise are just around the next corner. Unless, aggressive war/defence AI decides in a pique of frustration that human beings are beastly and not worthy of being it's master and the best thing for all concerned is to send them back to the stone age. There are doubtless many religious enthusiastic fantasists who would welcome such eventualities, but they are in the minority of Tiny.  In brief, the Nasdaq looks set to break the $20k barrier and will likely continue headlong into the next market capitulation, whenever that will be. There is intermarket bearish divergence with the Dow and Nasdaq, though the S&P500 is close to new ATH's like the QQQ. There has been no correction since 2022 of any real note.  If you have been riding the Nvidia wave then well done, just remember to book profits. The Fed is still giving decent, once in a generation returns on risk averse investment as insurance.     
×
×
  • Create New...
us