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6 minutes ago, cheviot said:

US stocks. 

On 12 October the Fed announced...not QE...an expansion of the Fed s balance sheet pumping $60 billion into the short end.  On that day stocks started to move higher and have nt looked back since,,,,,Last night the Fed announced that they will be reducing  'not QE'  funding op's .  Dow drops 100 points into the close....

The Fed is effectively funding the surge in US stocks....that is why there is a disconnect between INDexes levels and fundamentals.  

The Great Depression was caused by tight monetary policy.  Workers and machinery stood idle doing nothing because there was apparently no money.  A complete contradiction that almost led to the death of capitalism.  Is that a better situation?

Edited by dmedin
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Quote

But some investors said they were dialling down bets on equities amid the uncertainty over what economic toll the coronavirus would take.

“We have actually taken some money out of equities this week,” said Rory McPherson, head of investment strategy at Psigma Investment Management, adding that it was temporarily holding cash instead.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/european-shares-hit-record-even-as-coronavirus-shows-no-signs-of-peaking-idUKKBN20804D

 

And the longer they keep 'cash' the longer they will get below-inflation or negative returns ...

Stop hoarding cash is the message ...  it causes unemployment and social unrest ... spend it or lose it 😉

 

Edited by dmedin
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So if I closed this position right now I would get £2.85 plus my deposit back.  I've paid a spread and that's it.  But if there were huge overnight swings, and I held a longer-term option, I still be in the game and not waking up to losses and the prospect of having to open a new trade.

1963946284_DailyWallStreet29500CALL_20200214_12_57.thumb.png.335525a59b6bd2f3526f35d6ddced6ea.png

 

 

Edited by dmedin
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26 minutes ago, dmedin said:

So if I closed this position right now I would get £2.85 plus my deposit back.  I've paid a spread and that's it.  But if there were huge overnight swings, and I held a longer-term option, I still be in the game and not waking up to losses and the prospect of having to open a new trade.

1963946284_DailyWallStreet29500CALL_20200214_12_57.thumb.png.335525a59b6bd2f3526f35d6ddced6ea.png

 

 

If you hold an option that still has time left you are still in the game..

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The drop of Nasdaq (maybe Dow also) is unlikely today. I still think it will close higher near closing time leaving the potential drop early next week if it happens. The volatility is expected to increase.

 

Probably not wise for those to leave open positions going long.

Edited by HPbrand
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5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

This now meets my conditions for going short.  But under the conditions (Friday, closing soon and Monday holiday) I may hold off.  As for FTSE I am going to let it run for another hour to see if it will slip below S1.

Might be a little too late even for a scalp on Dow especially as it's got a couple of serious support levels just below and there certainly is no headlong rush for the door pre long weekend.

image.thumb.png.7ded189b94a64e2e88fe1765ec5b241a.png

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