Our Picks

Gold looks at risk of a protracted period of decline, as rising yields highlight the potential for long-term weakness for the precious metal.

The dollar has been on the rise as the Fed plots an increasingly hawkish path. With Powell stepping up once again, there is a good chance we could see months of dollar outperformance.

Brent Crude Oil Price, Chart, and Analysis:
Brent crude rallies on increased global demand.
Natural gas prices hits a multi-year record high.

GBP/USD Analysis and News:
GBP/USD on the Backfoot.
UK OIS Markets Price In Aggressive BoE Tightening. Room for Disappointment.
UK Data to Slow Down.

US 10-year treasury yields break higher, with USD/JPY and value stocks expected to gain in prominence as a result.

USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
DXY trading towards important resistance test.
A sustained breakout is possible, but conviction lacks.
Price action may continue to contract through the rest of the year.

EUR/USD Analysis & News:
SPD Wins Majority of Votes.
The Greens & FDP to Decide Between Traffic Light or Jamaica Coalition.
Euro Sees Muted Impact After Election Sees Status Quo Maintained.

GBP/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis:
Fuel shortages across the country need to be rectified immediately.
BoE and Fed speakers will help steer GBP/USD this week.

With Alibaba’s share price falling close to 35% year-to-date, will it stage a recovery in the coming months?

US durable goods and Chinese PMI figures are the key events next week, as markets continue to look for signs of ongoing recovery in the global economy. Meanwhile, UK corporate reporting includes retailers Boohoo and Next, and pub group JD Wetherspoon.

Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 27th September 2021.

US Dollar Outlook Bullish on Future US-China Tension

GBP/USD Flattens After BOE-Induced Rally
 

US Dollar Analysis & News:
Markit PMI Misses Expectations.
USD Back Down to Pre-FOMC Levels.
Markit PMI Misses Expectations.

Bank of England Analysis and News:
BoE Leaves Policy Tools Unchanged as Expected.
Policymakers Vote 7-2 on Maintain Gilt Purchases, Ramsden Joins Saunders in Hawkish Dissent.
GBP Breaks Above 1.37 on More Hawkish Statement.

FTSE 100, BANK OF ENGLAND POLICY DECISION, NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
The FTSE 100 index has been climbing for most of this week and the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee will likely consider it a job well done if London stocks and GBP are stable after its announcement today.
A hawkish tilt cannot be ruled out but the Bank is more likely to focus on stability and avoiding a major market reaction.

BRITISH POUND, US DOLLAR, GBP/USD, FOMC, BOE, EVERGRANDE - TALKING POINTS:
The British Pound was pushed to lows by the FOMC but rallied through Asia.
APAC equities were generally positive after Evergrande debt semi-resolution.
US Dollar strength tested after the Fed meeting. Will GBP/USD break-out?

A cautious stance overall from the Bank of England is likely to offer little support for an already hard-pressed pound.

USD, Fed Price Analysis & News:
Markets on Tenterhooks Ahead of Fed Meeting.
All Eyes on the Dot Plot Again.
Markets on Tenterhooks Ahead of Fed Meeting.

CRUDE OIL, EVERGRANDE, PBOC, BOJ, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, FOMC - TALKING POINTS:
Crude oil prices find support as China resolves systemic issues, for now.
APAC equities move higher from early lows, but end mixed on the day.
Risk-sensitive currencies and commodities rally. Can crude keep going?

GBP PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
The embattled Chinese property company Evergrande’s main unit, Hengda Real Estate, has said it will make a bond interest payment Thursday after private negotiations with bondholders.
That has eased fears of widespread market disruption, and boosted riskier assets such as stocks and currencies like the British Pound, despite concerns that Evergrande could still default on its debts.

Royal Mail has drifted down since June, as enthusiasm for the shares wanes.

S&P 500, Evergrande, Risk Trends, FOMC and Dollar Talking Points:
The week has opened to a distinct risk aversion with the S&P 500 putting in for a prominent trend reversal.
Risk aversion is more than just a single region or asset class sliding, and fear seems to be on the rise with plenty of fundamental fuel to keep the fire burning.
The power of anticipation may work to quell a meltdown as markets await the FOMC decision, but beware should fear persist despite the event risk.

GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD - TALKING POINTS:
Since making a new high, GBP/AUD has been struggling to hold ground of late.
GBP/NZD consolidates after a volatility spike on the move down in late August.
Positive sloping trend lines are still in place for GBP/CAD. Will that continue?

The dollar sits at a one-month high as the FOMC prepares to meet, with a possible announcement on tapering expected.