Our Picks
Top content from across the community, hand-picked by us.
Markets Fall on Renewed US-China Tensions - EMEA Brief 10 Dec
Guest IGAaronC posted a blog entry in Market News,
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Guest,New indicator: Ease of Movement
Guest DanielaIG posted a blog entry in IG Product Updates,
An indicator that highlights the relationship between price and volume and is particularly useful when assessing the strength of a trend. As implied by its name, it is used to measure the ease of movement in price. It is a volume-based oscillator that fluctuates above and below the zero line.
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Guest,Bitcoin hits year low - EMEA Brief 07 Dec
MichaelaIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
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MichaelaIG,Panic stations - APAC brief 7 Dec
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Risk-off: Maybe traders have just taken too many hits in the last 3-months, and the bulls are effectively tapping out. A premature call, here, to be sure, however there seems so little motivation to hold onto riskier assets. It seems that collectively, a clear strategy to handle the volatility isn’t yet to emerge. The classic plays into safe-havens can be seen: US Treasuries are going on a tear presently, for a variety of reasons to be discussed shortly. An unwinding of the Yen carry trade has pushed the USD/JPY to 112.50. And gold is looking at a break-out above resistance at $1240. Inversely, risk proxies have also been thumped: global equities (needless to say) are getting hammered, the AUD/USD is taking a rinsing, and commodities, led by a 3 per cent tumble in oil, and a 1.1 per cent fall in copper, are plummeting.
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MaxIG,#IGCommodityChat: Base Metals
JamesIG posted a blog entry in IG Community Blog,
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JamesIG,China-US cease-fire in jeoprady as Huawei CFO is arrested in Canada - EMEA Brief 06 Dec
Guest DanielaIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
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Guest,New platform feature: Deal position preview
Guest DanielaIG posted a blog entry in IG Product Updates,
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Guest,Government Found in Contempt as Theresa May Suffers Further Defeats in the House - EMEA Brief 05 Dec
Guest IGAaronC posted a blog entry in Market News,
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Guest,OPEC preview
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
The current state of demand and supply
After being in deficit for 2018 and 2019, the oil market is expected to shift back to surplus next year:
Crude output continues to rise despite the decline in Iranian output:
Crude oil seasonality
Usually oil weakens in the first two months of Q4, but it then tends to pick up from the first half of December, beginning a steady rally into the summer.
Expectations
Current forecasts suggest a cut of 1.4 million barrels per day will result from the meeting. Anything less than this would likely cause another drop in prices. The meeting may not go with an explicit number, merely creating an agreement to restrict supply. Again, this is unlikely to be well-received by the oil market.
Saudi Arabia – walking a tightrope
Saudi Arabia faces a difficult balancing act. On the one hand, it must avoid letting the oil price fall too far and hurt its finances (and those of the others in OPEC, though that is less of a concern). On the other, it will seek to avoid cutting too far, too fast, since this might lead to a sharp bounce in the oil price, which would annoy the White House.
Saudi Arabia knows that it has outraged world opinion with its actions regarding Jamal Khashoggi, and that only the lack of outright condemnation from the US has saved them from serious consequences. Trump’s decision to equivocate on the subject, while not conditional on keeping oil prices down, may waver if they cut output by a significant amount.
But then again, with a defence budget running at 10% of GDP (almost five times the global average and three times the US budget in GDP terms), plus large state spending commitments, Saudi Arabia has to look at some cuts in order to restore balance to its finances.
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MaxIG,Inverted Yield Curves -APAC brief 5 Dec
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
What it all means: In short: traders are anticipating an imminent end to the Fed’s hiking cycle, and they are now trying to approximate when the Fed may cut rates again. This is where the talk of recession starts to pop-up. As is easy enough to grasp, the Fed would need to cut rates in the event that the economy requires stimulatory support from monetary policy. Such circumstances would emerge if the economy began to slip into something resembling a recession. Hence, when yields at some point in the curve invert, it’s a reflection of traders collectively estimating that in the near-enough future, interest rates will be lower than what they are (around about) now, because the economy will enter into a period of significant weakness to require a rate cut from the Fed.
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MaxIG,Post in Crude Oil (WTI)
Mercury posted a post in a topic,
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JamesIG,Liquidity is thinning, Fed is telling us something, a true G20 breakthrough? - DFX key themes
JohnDFX posted a blog entry in Market News,
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JamesIG,High-Stakes in the House of Commons - EMEA Brief 04 Dec
Guest JoeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
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Guest,A bullish Monday - APAC brief 2 Dec
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Global stocks: There remains, at time of writing, a few moments left in the North American session, and as it stands, the good-vibrations are waning somewhat. Nevertheless, Wall Street is higher, capping-off a positive day for markets overall. The NASDAQ is leading the charge, up around 1 per cent for the session, while the Dow Jones and S&P500 are 0.7 per cent higher for the day. It follows an Asian and European session which saw the Nikkei up 1 per cent, the CSI300 up 2.8 per cent, the DAX up 1.85 per cent, and the FTSE100 up 1.2 per cent. Volumes have also been very substantial, running 30 per cent above average on the S&P, and a remarkable 45 per cent above average in Chinese share markets, adding conviction behind the day’s trade.
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MaxIG,Adding the % Range column to a watchlist
Guest DanielaIG posted a blog entry in IG Product Updates,
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Guest,US and China agree tariff ceasefire; Markets soar - EMEA Brief 3 Dec
GeorgeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
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GeorgeIG,Trumps G20 summit - APAC brief 3 Dec
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Typical talk-fest: As generally occurs at these talk-fests, this year’s G20 summit was apparently characterized by the typical jostling and lobbying between the many tiers of power. What happens behind closed doors seemingly stays behind closed doors (it’s hardly surprising the masses treat these engagements with cynicism, if not outright paranoia), so it’s difficult to know the depth of discussion shared by world leaders. What we do get though is a nice little communique at the end of it all, summarizing the broad, shared vision of the member countries, with some normative statements articulating how the world ought to approach itself in the future. The short-term financial market implications of this year’s statement will presumably be limited, and more focused on (somewhat improving) US-Sino relations.
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MaxIG,Post in Crude Oil (WTI)
Mercury posted a post in a topic,
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JamesIG,High Stakes at the G20 Summit - EMEA Brief 30 Nov
Guest JoeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
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JamesIG,Relief rally - APAC Brief 30 Nov
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Markets want what’s familiar: Markets don’t like this. They desire support and stability and a protection of the status quo. It’s why, in part, seeing the Fed ostensibly step in to support financial markets is so emboldening, and sparks all sorts of bullish impulses. This is especially so within equity markets, which being able to gorge on cheap credit for years, became spoilt and fattened. The fundamentals of the system itself are shaky. Although this ought to be an inherent virtue when it comes to the nature of capitalism – the notion of creative destruction, as economist Joseph Schumpeter expressed it, whereby viable investments prosper, and wasteful inefficiencies are purged – for the better part of a decade, policy makers (rightly or wrongly) have sought to resist this process to maintain a semblance of economic constancy and social confidence.
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MaxIG,Post in Gold & Silver in a LT rally
trade247 posted a post in a topic,
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JamesIG,LIVE video at 1pm - #IGCommodityChat: Oil
JamesIG posted a blog entry in IG Community Blog,
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JamesIG,Wyckoff Logic
Caseynotes posted a topic in General Trading Strategy Discussion,
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JamesIG,Fed Rate Reveal Promotes Stock Rally - EMEA Brief 29 Nov
MichaelaIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
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