Indices

[dmedin]

We're seeing a proper pullback now.  View it as an opportunity to get back in later at a better price.

[dmedin]

🤔

[Caseynotes]

Just now, dmedin said:

🤔

yes, I was just looking at the same time frame.

[HPbrand]

8 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Hi, https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment

Thanks 👍

[dmedin]

Big drop happening ...

Damning evidence against Trump - he is going to resign or else be impeached.

TRUMP IS FINISHED.

Edited November 20, 2019 by dmedin

[dmedin]

Quote

Completion of a “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal could slide into next year, trade experts and people close to the White House say, as Beijing presses for more extensive tariff rollbacks, and the Trump administration counters with heightened demands of its own.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trade-china-timing/phase-one-u-s-china-trade-deal-may-not-be-completed-this-year-trade-sources-idUKKBN1XU2C9

 

Trump is too busy dealing with scandals at home ...

[Caseynotes]

15 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Completion of a “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal could slide into next year, trade experts and people close to the White House say, as Beijing presses for more extensive tariff rollbacks, and the Trump administration counters with heightened demands of its own.

yes well spotted, it was down to the Reuters report on no chance of a trade deal being signed this year that caused the sudden drop and nothing to do with Trump at all as there isn't actually any evidence against him at all, never mind.

[Caseynotes]

Latest 'star witness' Trump impeachment 'evidence' bombshell.

Sondland Bombshell - "There was a quid pro quo!!!"

Did Trump tell you? "No."

Did Pompeo tell you? "No."

Did Zelensky tell you? "No."

Then how do you know? ... "I just presumed."

 

[Caseynotes]

Since the Reuters report yesterday claiming no deal possible this year US have stated negotiations for phase one completion continue. Looking at the charts you can see why Trump is in no hurry as the China 50 looks more like the Ftse than Dow.

[dmedin]

🤔

[Caseynotes]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

🤔

We've got the whole bundle of EU and Ger PMIs coming out tomorrow morning should be interesting, all are forecast to come in higher than last month's data and also all last month's data has since been revised higher.

[dmedin]

Quote

Strong German exports to the United States helped Europe’s largest economy to avoid a recession in the third quarter, data showed on Thursday, as companies benefited from a weaker euro and trade diversion linked to the U.S.-China tariff dispute.

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-germany-economy-trade-exclusive/exclusive-german-exports-to-united-states-jump-despite-trade-tensions-idUKKBN1XV0VG

[Caseynotes]

Dow put in a pause candle yesterday which may set up for a reversal back up but up or down will probably be determined by the US PMI data at 2:45pm.

China moving down today despite China reasserting wishes for completion of trade deal phase 1 as soon as possible. 

[dmedin]

Basically ... trading sideways for now.

Stay away.

[Caseynotes]

3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Basically ... trading sideways for now.

Stay away.

Looks like there was a speculative rise pre PMIs hoping for good numbers but the data came in mixed so bets came straight off and now back where started so see where goes from here.

[Caseynotes]

Dow closing the week setting up to go higher on Monday. Next week US traders leave work early on Thursday for Thanksgiving, call in sick for Friday and then turn up blurry eyed on Monday 🥳

[Caseynotes]

14 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Dow closing the week setting up to go higher on Monday. Next week US traders leave work early on Thursday for Thanksgiving, call in sick for Friday and then turn up blurry eyed on Monday 🥳

oops, got the days mixed up, half day Wednesday, Thanksgiving Thursday and call in sick Friday.

[Caseynotes]

Dow bouncing back, Dax following, looks like the top pickers are wrong again, yawn.

Interesting chart from Bloomberg suggesting we could be at the start of a new mini-cycle.

And from Calum Thomas global equities look to be leading global PMIs back up. 

 

[Caseynotes]

S&P makes another new all time high and ATH close today in the last hour of the US market open, especially bullish heading towards the Thanksgiving holiday Thursday.

[Caseynotes]

Dow and S&P back up to the highs, that didn't take long. Ftse back up to the resistance level that has held since early Sept so let's see this time.  

[Caseynotes]

Bespoke @bespokeinvest

Smallcaps, welcome to the party! $IWM

Russell 2000 ETF;

[Caseynotes]

So as usual expect continuation but keep an eye out for US GDP at 1:30.

Below is this morning's SSI data and as usual retail clients are heavy short the S&P during this 2 month straight bull run. Keep hitting that Sell button guys, you never know one day you might be right though probability says that's unlikely, still, what's probability compared to hopes, dreams, fantasies and derangements.

Some might suggest that rather than using well buttered TA to decide what you think the market SHOULD be doing and acting on it perhaps just wait and see what the market IS doing and act on that instead.

[Caseynotes]

Indices easing back over China threats of retaliation after Trump signs bill in support of HK protesters. US holiday today so probably a quiet afternoon.

[Caseynotes]

Should be interesting today and what happens to indices, no major news expected but US traders back from holiday and how they leave the S&P poised for the weekend should hint to the week ahead. So far a red candle so the top pickers will be back out from undercover because they know they're never wrong, just not right yet 🙃

[Caseynotes]

China better than expected manu PMI data Saturday showing expansion for the first time in 6 months encourages the other indices. US large caps are up over 25% on the year (see asset list below). No doubt the top picking crowd have all steamed in short again following Friday's red candle, I'm not sure these poor souls can actually be helped as it's clearly a derangement syndrome. Some even try to use TA to justify the false reality of imminent total collapse but when the chart is into clear space there is nothing to hang TA on, it's all just wishful thinking.

[dmedin]

Looking for a little pullback before buying back in this week

In reality I should have let my positions run from a couple weeks back instead of ducking in and out.  Always learning.

Edited December 2, 2019 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Looking for a little pullback before buying back in this week

In reality I should have let my positions run from a couple weeks back instead of ducking in and out.  Always learning.

true enough, pullbacks are a natural part of the cycle and we are probably overdue one but that's not what 'the crowd' are looking for, they are calling a major reversal and piling in short every time they see a single daily red candle. S&P shorts are at 81%. 

[CharlotteIG]

2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

China better than expected manu PMI data Saturday showing expansion for the first time in 6 months encourages the other indices. US large caps are up over 25% on the year (see asset list below). No doubt the top picking crowd have all steamed in short again following Friday's red candle, I'm not sure these poor souls can actually be helped as it's clearly a derangement syndrome. Some even try to use TA to justify the false reality of imminent total collapse but when the chart is into clear space there is nothing to hang TA on, it's all just wishful thinking.

One of our Analysts have written a piece on this event but I love the visuals you've provided here! Thank you 

Asia's major indices up on the back of upbeat China PMI

[dmedin]

Aaaaand ... indices totally shafted today.  Hopefully just a little pullback.

[Caseynotes]

Solid drop for the Dow yesterday for the first time in over 2 months though hasn't breached the daily chart support level. Dax followed and did breach prior support but now attacking that level attempting to get back above. S&P same as Dow and hoping for support here.

China's recent talk of upping the stakes rather than signing phase 1 plus the disappointing US PMI data has shaken confidence that the talks were proceeding well, no major news today so could be a pause day or an attempt to reclaim lost ground.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1172027.shtml