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Completion of a “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal could slide into next year, trade experts and people close to the White House say, as Beijing presses for more extensive tariff rollbacks, and the Trump administration counters with heightened demands of its own.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trade-china-timing/phase-one-u-s-china-trade-deal-may-not-be-completed-this-year-trade-sources-idUKKBN1XU2C9

 

Trump is too busy dealing with scandals at home ...

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15 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Completion of a “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal could slide into next year, trade experts and people close to the White House say, as Beijing presses for more extensive tariff rollbacks, and the Trump administration counters with heightened demands of its own.

yes well spotted, it was down to the Reuters report on no chance of a trade deal being signed this year that caused the sudden drop and nothing to do with Trump at all as there isn't actually any evidence against him at all, never mind.

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Quote

Strong German exports to the United States helped Europe’s largest economy to avoid a recession in the third quarter, data showed on Thursday, as companies benefited from a weaker euro and trade diversion linked to the U.S.-China tariff dispute.

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-germany-economy-trade-exclusive/exclusive-german-exports-to-united-states-jump-despite-trade-tensions-idUKKBN1XV0VG

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14 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Dow closing the week setting up to go higher on Monday. Next week US traders leave work early on Thursday for Thanksgiving, call in sick for Friday and then turn up blurry eyed on Monday 🥳

oops, got the days mixed up, half day Wednesday, Thanksgiving Thursday and call in sick Friday.

  • Great! 1
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So as usual expect continuation but keep an eye out for US GDP at 1:30.

Below is this morning's SSI data and as usual retail clients are heavy short the S&P during this 2 month straight bull run. Keep hitting that Sell button guys, you never know one day you might be right though probability says that's unlikely, still, what's probability compared to hopes, dreams, fantasies and derangements.

Some might suggest that rather than using well buttered TA to decide what you think the market SHOULD be doing and acting on it perhaps just wait and see what the market IS doing and act on that instead.

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Should be interesting today and what happens to indices, no major news expected but US traders back from holiday and how they leave the S&P poised for the weekend should hint to the week ahead. So far a red candle so the top pickers will be back out from undercover because they know they're never wrong, just not right yet 🙃

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China better than expected manu PMI data Saturday showing expansion for the first time in 6 months encourages the other indices. US large caps are up over 25% on the year (see asset list below). No doubt the top picking crowd have all steamed in short again following Friday's red candle, I'm not sure these poor souls can actually be helped as it's clearly a derangement syndrome. Some even try to use TA to justify the false reality of imminent total collapse but when the chart is into clear space there is nothing to hang TA on, it's all just wishful thinking.

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1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Looking for a little pullback before buying back in this week :D

In reality I should have let my positions run from a couple weeks back instead of ducking in and out.  Always learning.

true enough, pullbacks are a natural part of the cycle and we are probably overdue one but that's not what 'the crowd' are looking for, they are calling a major reversal and piling in short every time they see a single daily red candle. S&P shorts are at 81%. 

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2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

China better than expected manu PMI data Saturday showing expansion for the first time in 6 months encourages the other indices. US large caps are up over 25% on the year (see asset list below). No doubt the top picking crowd have all steamed in short again following Friday's red candle, I'm not sure these poor souls can actually be helped as it's clearly a derangement syndrome. Some even try to use TA to justify the false reality of imminent total collapse but when the chart is into clear space there is nothing to hang TA on, it's all just wishful thinking.

image.thumb.png.bd7d951bd149873939d675627bfa00b5.png

image.thumb.png.cdfc1d949fcaaf5868c7252f5ce04778.png

image.thumb.png.b9029ac52e908166a0a9701deb7dec3b.png

One of our Analysts have written a piece on this event but I love the visuals you've provided here! Thank you 

Asia's major indices up on the back of upbeat China PMI

  • Thanks 1
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Solid drop for the Dow yesterday for the first time in over 2 months though hasn't breached the daily chart support level. Dax followed and did breach prior support but now attacking that level attempting to get back above. S&P same as Dow and hoping for support here.

China's recent talk of upping the stakes rather than signing phase 1 plus the disappointing US PMI data has shaken confidence that the talks were proceeding well, no major news today so could be a pause day or an attempt to reclaim lost ground.

image.thumb.png.7beccae39cf9f8399379e7e85c9b2e4f.png

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http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1172027.shtml

image.png.3c9035cb0769274a07190db48a7a5993.png

 

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