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Caseynotes

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Everything posted by Caseynotes

  1. Been an interesting week for the indices and a slight divergence has developed between Dow and the S&P that's worth taking a closer look at. The big news over the last week was the big US company's quarterly earnings releases which for the most part were good but a couple of big misses really hit because of the price-weighted Dow. Boeing saw a slump on the back of the 737 MAX crash and subsequent groundings and Caterpillar retreated due to slowing orders from the US shale oil fields. Boeing was down 2.8% and as it has a 9% weighting cost the index 70 points. Caterpillar's 4.5% decline (3.3% Dow weighting) cost the index more than 40 points. So looking at the Dow chart below and comparing it to the S&P chart above we see the Dow consolidating at the highs while the S&P drives on, both obviously bullish though. More earnings out next week and 2 on Tuesday (after market close) to watch out for are AMD and Apple, both on Nasdaq. Another interesting feature when markets reach their highs is that the retail crowd always goes short, been watching it for years, they never seem to learn. Novice traders always seem to think that the objective is to pick major turning points on a chart and they always get stung. The real objective to pick points for continuation, let the big players decide when it's time to turn and follow. As in the chart a couple of posts above this is the 12th ATH this year (over 100 times in the last 5 years) but each time you are guaranteed to see this positioning by retail clients, and over a hundred times in the last 5 years they've been wrong.
  2. Big pump down in the last 15 minutes to test daily chart support level 9496. H4 chart;
  3. End of day Indices Bonds and USD up, Oil and BTC down. Chart US fang up 2%.
  4. Bull drive into all time highs going into the weekend sure sign of big money strength and confidence, you should have been the buying the dips not shorting the highs ..., for the last three and a half years actually. S&P daily.
  5. Very good 25 min video from SMB Capital on how stock selection is just as important as the trade set up. Workshop on how to improve trading by upping stock selection. SMB Capital Published on Jul 25, 2019
  6. Shopify inc could be ready to break out, had a great year so far.
  7. ok, so as in the pic above from the other poster, to exit the position I don't think it matters if it's a limit or stop because it can only cancel the position if it's a sell order for the total number of shares. So for the pic below if you have 300 shares and you want to sell them at a certain level to act as a stop loss it would be sell + quantity, limit day and the stop loss level. Maybe @JamesIG can check this for us. ps, I just use the windows 'snipping tool' to crop, copy and paste pics.
  8. Bit dull today after yesterday but US GDP Q2 came in a beat at 2.1% (annulised), Dow hovering just above the pivot and Dax just below, all very cautious so far with the US market open coming up. For the last few weeks US traders were happy to drive price up right into the close but not looking so brave today.
  9. I think the real snag was she was always a remainer and was more interested in the type of brexit where we actually stayed in, the Tories were caught in the headlights of the oncoming bus that was Farage's Brexit party which was going to take a big slice out of both the Tories and Labour if nothing changed.
  10. the pic didn't come out but I'm presuming you have the sell stop but not the GTC which is not offered on some exchanges so needs to reset daily. Some brokers will do this automatically for you and is another function expected on the upgrade.
  11. hi, the share dealing platform is awaiting an upgrade to match the cfd platform and will incorporate a stop loss function though remember a stop loss is just an equal and opposite stop order to the original trade entry order, see top answer on this thread below on how to set a stop loss and limit order for the share dealing platform.
  12. And not as May did and waste 3 years giving in to every EU demand which became an never ending list.
  13. presumably IG are going to use their own data updated from the exchange for their screener, Tradingview uses Oanda's data and the timing of routine updates will differ.
  14. From yesterday; "Fear grips Wall Street as stocks retreat from all-time highs to levels not seen since yesterday afternoon" Hipster @Hipster_Trader "S&P 500 (number of) All-Time Highs by Decade... 1930-39: 0 1940-49: 0 1950-59: 141 1960-69: 224 1970-79: 35 1980-89: 190 1990-99: 310 2000-09: 13 2010-19: 219* (*<half year remaining in decade)" Charlie Bilello @charliebilello
  15. "Ever wondered how $BTC performs during a certain months? Here is the historical monthly performance since 2012. Lowest returning month: Jan. at -0.18% on average with 3 green & 5 red months. Highest returning month: Nov. at 75.58% on average with 6 green & 1 red month." ₿itDealer @Bitdealer
  16. The average true range for dax daily is currently 125 points while for ftse it is 55 points, that's fairly typical of the differential between the two, 20 point moves for dax throughout the day are quite common. Yesterday's big one hour slide is quite rare though a couple of times a week there will be 100 point moves over several hours so it's a case of expecting the 20 move but be ready for the occasional larger one.
  17. Dax and Dow making their way up to the new daily pivot, whom soever controls the pivot controls short term direction and with price so close on the open there is likely to be an initial battle to take control. Intraday keeping it simple, price above the pivot look for longs price below look for shorts.
  18. Dow puts in a nice big bear directional bar yesterday but bounced off confirmed support. Today's bar can only be one of either directional continuation (down), inside pause or reversal bar back up. US GDP data 1:30pm will probably decide it. Dax trying for support off 12300 and Ftse looking to secure support at 7473. S&P daily not so affected by yesterday's turmoil and already on the way to recovery. Daily chart;
  19. Overnight Indices mixed, USD and Bonds flat, Crypto down and Oil and Gold up. Earnings Amazon miss, Alphabet beat. Chart Alphabet up 7.5% On the calendar and today it's all about US GDP 1:30pm.
  20. you don't necessarily need to know what but do need to know when something important is going to happen, many impose on themselves a trading blackout 20 min before and 45 min after a red data release. see the cut out below from my daily dashboard post from this morning or look at any econ calendar.
  21. ooor, could it have had something to do with the ECB rate decision where everyone was expecting some sort of EU easing in mon pol to match the US expectations, even a rate cut, then the release said no but hinted soon, then Draghi's presser and said a cut was never even discussed, but now after the plunge saying well ... Sept def. Just Draghi playing yoyo with the market.
  22. lol, and on no news, amazing.
  23. Gold another big mover today retesting 1414.
  24. yes, when the Indices decide on a big move they can be quite stylish and such a day is not too uncommon.
  25. Interesting to see what comes out at 1:30, Dax and Dow got a shot in the arm from the ECB, though no cut today still looking in that direction. Dax and Dow rally to R1. M5 charts;
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