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Everything posted by Caseynotes

  1. Recent outbreaks SARS and Zika; Their news story count and indices reactions.
  2. The gold chart is not showing signs of panic either;
  3. The indices are certainly not showing panic selling and in fact looks more like a normal monthly correction, today will be telling as to whether the slide will be contained or not. The top pickers are back out with their usual predictions, one red candle = coming recession, two red candles clearly indicates the end of the world is nigh. Over the weekend there was lots of scrambling about for historic comparisons and the SARS outbreak was the go to data pile which didn't actually cause world wide economic meltdown (see bottom chart).
  4. Over the weekend Indices and Oil down, Bonds and Gold up. Today Ger business climate and expectations at 9am. US housing data at 3pm.
  5. I don't think many retail clients with their on average £1000 accounts have hedged that by taking out S&P shorts tbh. Looking at the COT data for the S&P open interest is still relatively low so not really 'massively' long (see chart). The bond market has been falling for years as I've discussed in the Modern Monetary Theory thread and is a sign of long term changes in global economics rather than near term pessimism. The 2s and 10s spread and yields in general have actually pulled back from recession mode lately (see chart). And looking at the weekend S&P there doesn't seem to be any panic selling but rather a normal correction on the back of new news regarding a spreading virus which may have an affect on near term economics, very reasonable I would have thought.
  6. Actually this is not a blog, it's just a particular thread, one of many, on an interactive forum. One of the reasons I started this thread was to highlight the absurdity of the herd following mentality that are the top pickers. I have seen many market corrections over the last 30 years, not crashes because there haven't actually been many, and as I've mentioned before, over the last ten years not a week has gone by when someone didn't tell me the top was in and the down turn was about to begin, every week - for 10 years. Incredulously the same souls keep coming back to repeat it time and time again, there are peeps on this forum who have been calling the top continuously since the forum started over 4 years ago, can you believe that, they just don't care how many times they get it wrong so long as they'll be right one day. It's like some kind of a derangement. So each time I am happy to give the other perspective, I'm happy to tell readers 'don't be one of the herd', don't bother trying to predict the top, in fact don't bother trying to predict at all. Learn instead to follow the market because there is surely no one here big enough to lead it. If you have taken that as me ridiculing you personally then I'm sorry, I'm actually ridiculing the whole top picking herd. Retail short/long net positions for the last 3 months. The HERD have been consistently SHORT for the last 3 months of this continuous up trend, and not just a little, a lot, look at the numbers Longs in the few hundreds, Shorts in the thousands. In fact as I've reported in this thread regularly, the herd were net short for the whole of 2019. No wonder 75%, the herd, loses money, they are forever trying to pick the top.
  7. I'm not sure I want to know what 'blazed' means
  8. I wouldn't worry too much about it, once the Leftist Totalitarians seize power you'll be living in a pod, eating bugs, drinking cockroach milk and working 16 hour days on your laptop controlling robots in factories and warehouses. Something to look forward to 🤩
  9. The indices have dropped a bit on the weekend chart probably due to the continuing virus scare. I saw this go through just an hour ago and it surprised me, I think those numbers may be a major under counting. Yesterday afternoon I watched a couple of twitter videos out of China one clearly showing wrapped bodies in hospital corridors amongst dozens of sick sitting leaning against the walls. In another a nurse (in disguise) was talking about 90,000 cases in her area alone. China have now locked down over 40 cities, ... because of just 41 dead? Conflict News @Conflicts 1h MAP: #WuhanCoronovirus infections in East Asia. Currently 1355 confirmed cases, 41 dead.
  10. A 1% correction on a Friday, just a typical pre-weekend pullback then. Steve Burns @SJosephBurns "The stock market had 3 corrections of at least 5% in 2019, that is an average year for price action. The odds are we will have 5% pullbacks this year as well and they are likely to be buying opportunities not times to think the market is going to crash." The key to deciding when a move in the opposite direction is done and time to get in to continue with trend is to just imagine you are riding the down move, you stop reloading or adding in when it stops working, wait for that and then look for the next pullback to get aboard for the trip back up.
  11. ps sorry about the alert but am trying out a new indicator and the alert got stuck lol.
  12. I did read years ago that most stop runs don't travel more than about 20 tick past an obvious entry point as by then they will have captured around 80%.
  13. you can dance about all you want to, if the big guns want your contracts they know just where to find them 🤷‍♂️🤦‍♂️
  14. Is that because you put it at the most obvious place, the same place as everyone else?
  15. The 8am power candle breakout past near term resistance was the buy signal (buy high, sell higher). Some would have stayed in, I got out at each R level and then re-entered so 2 legs up at plus 15 each then a minus 10 when price failed to take R2. Waiting for a break of R2.
  16. Dax raced up to tag R2 after a pause at R1 and currently waiting on Dow which is stuck between the pivot and R1. M5 charts;
  17. "Taxation of futures: the worst fears come true! A change in the taxation of futures creates a lot of discussion among traders. GodmodeTrader asked the Federal Ministry of Finance. The answer provides clarity - and new worry lines." so this is a German govt initiative then, thank goodness we're leaving.
  18. To save a chart right click and then click export chart, a copy will be placed in your download folder and you can add it to a post from there. The recent spike also showed up on Tradingview though seen as a spike up and a gap down, see pic below.
  19. Hi, can you screen shot and post the chart to make it easier for anyone to check?
  20. "Following in the footsteps of ESMA, Australian financial regulator the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) is planning on adding restrictions on CFD trading and completely banning binary options. Whilst the latter is no surprise, are ASIC’s measures regarding CFD’s in the country’s best interest?" https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/regulation/are-asics-product-intervention-measures-in-australias-best-interest/
  21. 70% of investors think equities will rise >5% this year (survey at GS macro conference in Hong Kong this week) via themarketear
  22. French and Ger beat on PMIs so likely EU beat as well, Dax pops above R1.
  23. Dax and Dow looking to overcome near term resistance on the London open. M15 charts;