GBPUSD Analysis and Talking Points:
GBP So Far Unfazed by Rising Political Uncertainty
UK PM Johnson’s Tenure Hinges on Sue Gray’s Investigation
See our quarterly GBP forecast to learn what will drive prices through Q1
UK politics have been stealing the limelight in recent weeks following revelations that the UK government had been flaunting lockdown restrictions on various occasions over the last two years. In light of these revelations, voting intentions for the Con
The S&P 500’s bloated tech stocks could soon be hammered by tightening monetary policy. And with interest rates rising, it might finally be time for the FTSE 100 to shine.
Source: Bloomberg
Indices Shares FTSE 100 S&P 500 S&P Global Ratings Federal Reserve
What to watch this earnings season
While Covid-19 dominated market sentiment in 2020 and 2021, earnings season outlooks are more nuanced for 2022.
In particular, many investors will be watching to see if 2022 boasts a reversal of the market conditions that dominated the pandemic, such as low interest rates, a bullish Wall Street and booms for the tech and big pharma industries.
Emphasis is likely to be on supposed ‘sure bets’ this season, with r
The Bank of Japan is set to hold their monetary meeting across 17 – 18 January 2022, with the meeting bringing about its latest outlook on growth and inflation.
Source: Bloomberg
Forex Bank of Japan Inflation Japan Japanese yen United States dollar
The Unilever share price is volatile. And at 3,654p, worth exactly what it was five years ago. Increasing its £50 billion bid for GSK’s healthcare arm could see the FTSE 100 stalwart sink or soar.
Source: Bloomberg
Shares Unilever GlaxoSmithKline Health care Price Investor
Q4 US reporting season: 5 things to watch this upcoming earnings season
This reporting season is expected deliver more strong earnings growth, and cap off a year in which profits grew by 40% a share, but the future looks less certain with the rate of growth tipped to plateau into 2022.
Source: Bloomberg
QQQ NASDAQ 100 ETF, FED FORECAST, DOLLAR, USDJPY AND EARNINGS TALKING POINTS
Risk appetite is still elevated at the upper end of the spectrum, but the correction for the likes of the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 create a backdrop of instability
To determine where the markets are heading over the coming week, it is worthwhile to assess the dominant fundamental drive – and Fed speculation will recede this week
Aside from US monetary policy, China’s 4Q GDP release is top scheduled
Airlines have come a long way since early 2020 and enjoyed some great moments in 2021 before Omicron turned the market upside down. Investors are now eager to see what lies ahead in 2022.
Source: Bloomberg
Shares Airline American Airlines United States
The ASOS share price is down more than 50% over the past year. But a cocktail of robust results, board changes, brand acquisitions and a plan to join the FTSE 250 is increasing the odds of recovery.
Source: Bloomberg
Indices Shares ASOS Price Boohoo.com Share price
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 17th January 2022. These are projected dividends and likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. Amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted o
CEO Alison Brittain strikes a positive tone as the FTSE 100 hotelier and restauranteur plans its recovery. But Whitbread shares remain 34% below their pre-pandemic point. And an inflationary spiral is not off the table yet.
Source: Bloomberg
Indices Shares Whitbread Inflation Premier I
This reporting season is expected deliver more strong earnings growth, and cap-off a year which profits grew by 40% a share, but the future looks less certain with the rate of growth tipped to plateau into 2022.
Source: Bloomberg
Indices Shares Commodities S&P 500
US RATES, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 TALKING POINTS:
Yesterday saw both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 put in strong bounces from support following early-session sell-offs.
US rates continue to run higher with even greater push on the shorter-end of the curve. This is a similar dynamic to what showed from late 2017 into late 2018. That scenario led to a pivot from the Fed, from a hiking stance in 2018 to a cutting phase in 2019.
Tomorrow brings CPI out of the US with the expecta
Tilray shares have spiked twice already; after its IPO in 2018 and during the meme stock craze early last year. But what are the long-term prospects for this divisive cannabis stock?
Source: Bloomberg
Shares Tilray Cannabis United States Medical cannabis Aphria
SPY S&P 500 ETF, QQQ NASDAQ 100 ETF, DOLLAR, USDJPY AND GBPUSD TALKING POINTS
The week opened to the momentum of Friday’s selloff for US equities with a QQQ bearish gap through support leading the way
By Monday’s close / Tuesday’s open, US equities fully reversed course with the SPY S&P 500 ETF posting a technically-clean reversal from channel support
For market motivation through the coming 24-48 hours, the focus intensifies on US monetary policy with hawkish Fed spe
By: Frank Kaberna, tastytrade. Jan 10, 2022
It feels like it was just yesterday people were worried about US Treasury rates staying at 0% forever… while it wasn’t yesterday, it was as recent as summer of last year that short-term interest rates were as close as they’ve ever been to negative.*
Now, the likelihood of multiple hikes to the Federal Funds Rate by the end of this year has people wondering just how big the chain reaction across the Treasury yield curve can be.
Pro
As the Eurozone’s annual inflation rate hits 5%, the European Central Bank remains firmly opposed to interest rate rises. But as energy prices continue to spike, the pressure to act could become unbearable.
Source: Bloomberg
Forex Commodities Inflation Euro Germany European Central Ban
Rising yields should help boost bank profitability, although JPMorgan’s stock price has struggled lately.
Source: Bloomberg
Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 10 January 2022
While headline i
FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR THE US DOLLAR: NEUTRAL
While the DXY Index added +0.07%, most of its gains were given back by the end of the week following the middling December US jobs report.
Not only are there several ‘high’ ranked data releases due in the coming days, there are testimonies and speeches by several Federal Reserve policymakers that seem destined to introduce more volatility to financial markets.
According to the IG Client Sentiment Index, the US Dollar has a mixed
Uranium is unloved due to its affiliation with nuclear disasters. But with its spot price surging amid political unrest in global supply leader Kazakhstan, some uranium stocks could soar.
Source: Bloomberg
Shares Commodities Uranium Nuclear power Nuclear reactor Kazakhstan
Boeing: Ready for Takeoff or Turbulence Ahead?
Jan 5, 2022 | By:James Blakeway. Tastytrade
The first two trading days of 2022 were kind to both the airlines and Boeing (BA). This New Year rally comes after an understandably difficult two years in the commercial aviation sector. While Boeing and the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) are far off their 2020 lows, they have a long road of recovery still ahead. Since the start of 2020, Boeing and JETS are facing negative returns in excess of 30%
JANUARY FX SEASONALITY OVERVIEW:
The first month of the year tends to see gains for commodities and commodity-linked currencies.
January is the best month of the year for gold prices in recent history.
Typical losses by the US Dollar tend to bode well for Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand Dollars.
The beginning of the month warrants a review of the seasonal patterns that have influenced forex markets over the past several years. For December, our focus