Indices

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow consolidating around the highs, Ftse contemplating the up coming UK election and S&P made it's 8th new all time high in the last 14 trading days yesterday.

[dmedin]

Here we go again ... 'trade hopes fade' etc.

[CharlotteIG]

We can already see the affect the inflation announcement had on the FTSE today at 9:30, but it's recovered slightly. 

We have the US CPI announcement today at 13:30 GMT. This is something to keep in mind this afternoon. 

[Caseynotes]

18 minutes ago, CharlotteIG said:

We can already see the affect the inflation announcement had on the FTSE today at 9:30, but it's recovered slightly. 

Also today is the start of the Trump impeachment hearings which might also affect the markets. Starting at 10am (I think EST which is 3pm gmt).

How to watch Wednesday's impeachment hearing

By Veronica Stracqualursi, CNN

 

Updated 1103 GMT (1903 HKT) November 13, 2019

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/13/politics/watch-impeachment-hearing-wednesday/index.html?utm_content=2019-11-13T12%3A11%3A07&utm_source=twCNNp&utm_medium=social&utm_term=image

[dmedin]

Quote

Trump once again took aim at the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions that have left U.S. interest rates higher than many other economies and said he would prefer negative rates.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trump-trade/trump-says-china-trade-deal-close-but-dashes-hopes-for-signing-details-idUKKBN1XM0JR

 

The big baby will keep throwing his toys out the pram until he gets what he wants.

[dmedin]

Apparently rising healthcare costs are a good thing for the American economy (i.e. the big profiteering healthcare companies that price gouge patients with expensive drugs and treatments).  You've got to love Anglo-Saxon capitalism.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/rising-healthcare-costs-power-u-s-consumer-inflation-idUKKBN1XN1US

[Caseynotes]

Dax just pulling back on the London open as is Dow which pushed through it's all time high overnight. Ftse and ASX still trapped by resistance. China announced more poor manu data as the trade dispute drags on.

[CharlotteIG]

The news came out this morning about Germany avoiding a recession in Q3, however with such good news the Dax has still dropped this morning.

We did also had an interview yesterday on why the indices may be dropping. 

Serge Berger is selling S&P 500 & Dax

What is your gut and analysis telling you about the big Indices. Let me know your thoughts on the piece as well as if you agree/ disagree. 

[dmedin]

Serge also cautioned about Apple in a previous video, but look.

[Caseynotes]

18 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Serge also cautioned about Apple in a previous video, but look.

ha ha yes. who really knows the future, I know I don't. What I do know is that the market is always looking for value, when price runs out of buyers it goes down looking for support, when it runs out of sellers it goes up looking for resistance. TA won't tell you where these places are on the chart because price is too fluid (buyers and sellers are whimsical just like you) no matter what time frame you are working on. 

This morning Dax started off looking for support and looks to have found it at S1 (13163) for now at least, fine, great, it doesn't really matter where it found it, only that you are able to recognise that it did.

[Caseynotes]

49 minutes ago, CharlotteIG said:

What is your gut and analysis telling you about the big Indices. Let me know your thoughts on the piece as well as if you agree/ disagree. 

for some reason the market just won't bend to my will and those dam ned central bankers keep interfering to prevent any kind of a melt down, blo ody ridiculous and irresponsible I know but there it is.

Retail sales and indy production are down because of 18 months of trade war, indices are buying into an increasing likelihood of a progressive resolution of that trade war.

[Caseynotes]

Permabears tryna call the market top like

[dmedin]

1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

TA won't tell you where these places are on the chart because price is too fluid (buyers and sellers are whimsical just like you) no matter what time frame you are working on

 

What do you understand by TA? 

From what I understand of TA, you are using it every day (so am I).  Just because you don't use EWP doesn't mean you're not using TA.

MAs, S/R, pivots, patterns and candle sticks are all TA ...

Edited November 14, 2019 by dmedin

[dmedin]

46 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Permabears tryna call the market top like

Dayum he a chubby bear 😄

[Caseynotes]

6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

What do you understand by TA? 

From what I understand of TA, you are using it every day (so am I).  Just because you don't use EWP doesn't mean you're not using TA.

MAs, S/R, pivots, patterns and candle sticks are all TA ...

just meaning that TA is based on historic values that may or may not have any bearing on today's market. For example new news is much more important than yesterday's chart values.

 

[dmedin]

The Dax is clinging on for dear life:

[Caseynotes]

4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

The Dax is clinging on for dear life:

Dax is rattling around perfectly happily between S1 and the Pivot just waiting for something to happen.

[Caseynotes]

The crowd (permabears and top pickers (80% US index retail traders are short)) must be wondering what they're doing wrong as Dow breaks it's all time high for the third day in a row. Ftse wonders about the upcoming election and ASX makes tentative moves against key resistance. Dax's all time high has also just come into view (black line).

S&P makes it's 21st record closing high of the year so far.

 

[Caseynotes]

wow, look at this guys, S&P and Dow storming into new all time highs late Friday session not giving a **** it's the weekend. That's more than just bullish confidence. The Trump impeachment hearings are collapsing into farce. COT data is collected on a Tuesday and published Friday night so won't show this move but it looks like the big hedge fund managers are getting off the fence, open interest has been low til now but that looks to be changing.

[AndrewS]

A confluence on the S&p500 on Friday. Resistance turned support just above a big round number as well as a retracement to a daily and weekly R1 pivot and a 20 hour moving average. Notice how the 20 hour moving average looks somewhat more interesting on a 15m chart.

[Caseynotes]

Dow continues onward and upward, Dax hesitant, Fste with election worries and ASX watches China's continued decreasing manufacturing production.

S&P weekly chart.

[dmedin]

Quote

A raft of major banks and fund managers have upgraded their view on global equities, with emerging-market stocks their top pick to benefit from signs of easing in the Sino-U.S. trade dispute.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets-jpmorgan/banks-and-funds-lower-red-flags-on-supercharged-stocks-idUKKBN1XS1LC

[Caseynotes]

The spike down in indices in the last hour was the same ol' trade war news, China stating they are less optimistic than the US and feel they have been mislead by recent talks where they felt they had agreement over a rollback of tariffs that the US now say is not the case. After 18 months of this you should be use to it by now. 

[dmedin]

Some excuse is needed for a pullback ...

[dmedin]

Quote

Wall Street hovered around record levels on Monday after Washington’s move to grant an extension for U.S. companies to do business with China’s Huawei helped ease some concerns around U.S.-China trade relations.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-at-record-levels-after-u-s-extends-huawei-reprieve-idUKKBN1XS1LU

[Caseynotes]

Dow back up to yesterday's high overnight, Dax remains in the bull flag, ASX breaking up through key resistance and Ftse still unsure which direction to go.

FT reporting Labour are on the verge of looking for a new leader.

[dmedin]

The politics is depressing ... at least the markets aren't.

[HPbrand]

On 29/10/2019 at 14:26, Caseynotes said:

yes, and no end of customers. S&P passes through the ATH (again) so IG clients move evermore into shorts, now at 78% short.

The market goes up the crowd goes short, you can see why a contrarian view is so popular.

 

Hi, where did you obtain the IG client's sentiments?

[Caseynotes]

16 hours ago, HPbrand said:

Hi, where did you obtain the IG client's sentiments?

Hi, https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment

[Caseynotes]

So after a break upward yesterday morning was followed by a pullback for the indices with the usual trade dispute back and forward plus an escalation in the Hong Kong protests with a stand off between students and the police plus the US senate getting involved to stir things up.

Looking at the Dax and Dow charts there was a 9am break upwards followed by a reversal, some might say that was a stop run but they are usually not much more than 20 points or so, some might say it was an exhaustion bar on the Dax but exhaustion bars are on the end of a run up or run down not 8 days into a flag. Inevitably some will say it's the beginning of end of the world (again) but it looks just like your average pullback to me.

Looking at the bottom chart compares 2 different assets with 2 similar looking charts, they should be because one is the Dow index while the other is one of the main Dow constituents, the funny thing is that one of the charts 'the crowd' are perpetually heavy on the short side while in the other they are perpetually heavy on the long side 🤔