Indices

[dmedin]

27 minutes ago, HMB said:

yes, phrased like that it more accurately captures the narrative - however should one not still have questioned that immediately?  because - what would have been a realistic expectation of what the Fed could have done, Powell could have said yesterday?  Rates at zero, they are already buying high yield bonds etc., just had confirmed the move to AIT in virtual Jackson Hole.  What could they have added at this stage?  And hence, which expectations exactly were so strongly disappointed to justify a roughly 66 points lower SPX overnight low?  After already around 27 points drop between pc and cash close?

...were expectations maybe for more buying on the longer end..?

think that this likely wasn't the only major factor.  maybe also still pressure from outstanding calls approaching expiry, for example  (that wouldn't explain a rebound today really, though..) 

 

I'm trying to become more careful with the common narratives flowing around. 

 

Dude ...

WTF are you on?

[Caseynotes]

10 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Tom?

How many years and you've never shown any trades?

don't need to show every trade because I've said dozens of times how I trade which is obviously a lot more helpful.

So for the hard of thinking I'll repeat again that I post the important levels because price moves between levels of supply and demand. The levels posted in advance were in the past important so may turn out again to be levels of dispute between buyers and sellers.

Between these levels are areas of range expansion, this is were I look for pullbacks on the lower time frame charts for entries to ride price onto the next level target.

However knowing what to do is not enough for some, they actually just want someone to continually give them the answers, they probably picked up this appalling habit in some cr@p socialist inspired education system.

[HMB]

55 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

Dude ...

WTF are you on?

Cipralex, Lamictal, Cialis (5 mg), the occasional Xanax and a vitamin B complex.  Why?

Edited September 17, 2020 by HMB

[HMB]

5 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

don't need to show every trade because I've said dozens of times how I trade which is obviously a lot more helpful.

So for the hard of thinking I'll repeat again that I post the important levels because price moves between levels of supply and demand. The levels posted in advance were in the past important so may turn out again to be levels of dispute between buyers and sellers.

Between these levels are areas of range expansion, this is were I look for pullbacks on the lower time frame charts for entries to ride price onto the next level target.

However knowing what to do is not enough for some, they actually just want someone to continually give them the answers, they probably picked up this appalling habit in some cr@p socialist inspired education system.

guess this worked nicely for NDX recently..?  if you assumed at the Wednesday overnight low last week that the range is established, you had two full round-trips - four times 650 points or so..? 

Edited September 17, 2020 by HMB

[Caseynotes]

FTSE and S&P daily.

Dax and Dow H1.

[Kodiak]

Lets see what happens next week when the options expiry is over

I think the DAX grinding sideways turns in to trending again? I would "guess" 70% chance for down and 30% for up

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/what-to-expect-from-quadruple-witching-for-september-2020/ar-BB199m77

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow ranging M15;

[Caseynotes]

FTSE and S&P daily chart.

S&P sitting just above daily support level 3290 (orange).

Dax and Dow H1 below the pivot and looking for support.

[Caseynotes]

Dow trying to hold around the daily chart support level (and S2).

H1 charts;

[CharlotteIG]

Dow now down more than 900 points for the day: 

[THT]

You wait a week for something to trigger and then 3 separate markets trigger within 10 mins of each other!

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow daily chart levels;

[Caseynotes]

Dow check of the pivot early on found sellers, now looking for support.

FTSE and S&P daily.

Dax and Dow H1.

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow M15;

[Caseynotes]

FTSE and S&P daily charts, S&P reaching for the monthly S1.

Dax and Dow H1 charts at the daily R1.

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow M15;

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow M15;

[AndrewS]

A post about trade management. I did not follow my playbook with respect to the hourly charts and at this point on the charts I was sucking the air between my teeth sitting on a loss short the Nikkei. But the longer time frame aspect of the trade idea was not invalidated. The resistance at around 23400 had not been breached and the Dow was still below the 50 Day MA. I was prepared to start scaling out at a loss if that resistance was breached but a series of lower highs emerged on the hourly charts. As Mr Dante says try to open a trade as close to the point where you know your wrong as you can, which I failed to do.

[HMB]

2 hours ago, AndrewS said:

A post about trade management. I did not follow my playbook with respect to the hourly charts and at this point on the charts I was sucking the air between my teeth sitting on a loss short the Nikkei. But the longer time frame aspect of the trade idea was not invalidated. The resistance at around 23400 had not been breached and the Dow was still below the 50 Day MA. I was prepared to start scaling out at a loss if that resistance was breached but a series of lower highs emerged on the hourly charts. As Mr Dante says try to open a trade as close to the point where you know your wrong as you can, which I failed to do.

sorry for being block-headed, are you saying that it was wrong to short too far away from the resistance, because closing at the point were you would have considered your trade idea as invalidated would have come with a too large loss?  sounds like good advice..

why had you opened the trade anyway?

 

[AndrewS]

1 hour ago, HMB said:

sorry for being block-headed, are you saying that it was wrong to short too far away from the resistance, because closing at the point were you would have considered your trade idea as invalidated would have come with a too large loss?  sounds like good advice..

why had you opened the trade anyway?

 

Well although it is one scaled into trade, for me it is two trades. A bad entry not following the playbook where the risk/return (distance) and probability would have been better and a good trade where I held onto it when the prospects (distance) were better.

So on a hourly time frame opening the trade was a mistake, but the trade management at a key level was better.

[Caseynotes]

FTSE and S&P daily.

Dax and Dow H1.

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow M15;

[dmedin]

Go short now, canny loons, if ye weren't already.

[dmedin]

On 22/09/2020 at 14:41, Caseynotes said:

Dax and Dow M15;

You're a dedicated man, Tom, and I salute you.

[HMB]

10 hours ago, AndrewS said:

Well although it is one scaled into trade, for me it is two trades. A bad entry not following the playbook where the risk/return (distance) and probability would have been better and a good trade where I held onto it when the prospects (distance) were better.

So on a hourly time frame opening the trade was a mistake, but the trade management at a key level was better.

thanks, understood - was just wondering what made you enter it in spite of against your playbook - there must have been a valid reason, as in the end it worked out well

[AndrewS]

23 minutes ago, HMB said:

thanks, understood - was just wondering what made you enter it in spite of against your playbook - there must have been a valid reason, as in the end it worked out well

Just the general weakness in the US and European Indices and the view that they were unlikely to rise much further in the short term. But I did not have a specific set-up for the Nikkei which was showing strength at the time. I was also trying to trial trading longer time frames which I am not very good at. It is 1.45 AM Sydney time and it would be nice to change the hours I trade, but I doubt that I can.

 

[HMB]

3 minutes ago, AndrewS said:

Just the general weakness in the US and European Indices and the view that they were unlikely to rise much further in the short term. But I did not have a specific set-up for the Nikkei which was showing strength at the time. I was also trying to trial trading longer time frames which I am not very good at. It is 1.45 AM Sydney time and it would be nice to change the hours I trade, but I doubt that I can.

 

ok, makes sense, thanks.  good night...

[Caseynotes]

FTSE and S&P daily charts.

Dax and Dow H1 charts.

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow M15;

 

[dmedin]

Here comes Tom with his 15 minute charts 🤪