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Australian Dollar Forecast: Wages Key to AUD/USD and RBA Outlook

AUDUSD, AUDNZD Price Analysis and News: Australian Wage Data Key for RBA Monetary Policy Considerations. AUD/NZD Elevated Relative to Bond Spreads. AUSTRALIAN WAGE DATA KEY FOR RBA MONETARY POLICY CONSIDERATIONS A plethora of RBA commentary overnight amid the release of the November meeting minutes as well as Governor Lowe’s speech. Within the RBA’s minutes, members noted that the risks to the inflation forecast had changed, as the distr
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British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook: GBP/USD Rallying After Strong UK Jobs Data

GBP PRICE, UK EMPLOYMENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS: The latest UK jobs report was stronger than economists had predicted, with employment above expectations, the unemployment rate down and average earnings higher than forecast. That has made an interest rate increase by the Bank of England next month almost certain, although the markets are unsure how large it will be. In turn, that has helped GBP/USD recover a very small part of its recent losses, although the trend in the pair is s
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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Eyes US Retail Sales for Direction

GOLD, XAU/USD, US RETAIL SALES, TREASURY YIELDS – TALKING POINTS Gold prices look higher after big gain on inflation worries US retail sales may provide the key for XAU’s direction XAU/USD eyes psychological 1900 level as prices gain Gold’s recent upside appears to be stalling out after prices cleared a key level of resistance during last week’s big +2.64% gain. XAU is currently trading near the highest levels since early June despite rising Tre
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EUR/GBP Pressured by Rate Expectations and Covid Cases, UK Inflation Data Looms

EUR/GBP Price, Chart, and Analysis: UK interest rate hike in December looking likely. UK inflation is set to rise further. EU covid rates turn higher. EUR/GBP traders will need to be alert over the next few days and weeks with a combination of hard data, BoE rate hike expectations, and rising covid cases in Europe will give further clues to the direction of the pair in the short term. In addition, ongoing talks between the EU and UK over the Northern Ireland protoco
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Crude Oil Price Volatility Ahead of US-Iran Nuclear Deal Talks

CRUDE OIL PRICES, INFLATION, IRAN-US RELATIONS, IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL - TALKING POINTS: Crude oil are prices at risk ahead of key geopolitical development at the end of the month. US-Iran talks on 2015 nuclear deal could yield progress, apply downward pressure on oil. What are obstacles to reconciliation and other macro-fundamental factors swaying crude?   ALCHEMY OR AFFECTATION? IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS Crude oil prices are vulnerable to geopolitically-induced volat
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The Week Ahead On The Markets

The Week Ahead Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week                                                                         Week commencing 15 November
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Australian Dollar Sinks on US Dollar Gains as CPI Fall Oout Continues. Where To From Here?

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, AUD/USD, US DOLLAR, US YIELDS, GOLD - TALKING POINTS: The Australian Dollar has accelerated lower after Wednesday’s CPI. APAC equities were mixed, crude oil is down a bit and gold is firmer. The market is testing the Fed’s resolve. Will US rates hit AUD/USD?   The Australian Dollar has lost ground to the US Dollar with US yields continuing higher in the aftermath of an eye watering CPI on Wednesday. All across the US curve, rates went north i
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Dividend Adjustment

Dividend Adjustments 15th November 2021 - 22nd November 2021

Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 15th November 2021. These are projected dividends and likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made. Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. Amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted
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Market News

Article 16: Why Triggering it Risks an All Out UK-EU Trade War

ARTICLE 16 EXPLAINER: UK-EU Tensions Rise Over Northern Ireland Protocol. UK to Trigger Article 16 Should Talks Fail, Raising Trade War Risks. OVERVIEW Tensions between the UK and EU have been on the rise in recent weeks, as both parties have yet to resolve their differences over the Northern Ireland Protocol. In turn, should the UK and EU fail to bridge the gap in talks, the UK have threatened to trigger Article 16. WHAT IS ARTICLE 16? Article 16 deals with
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British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook: GBP/USD Sliding Towards Support as UK GDP Disappoints

GBP PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS: GBP/USD is edging closer to a support line connecting the lower lows in place on the daily chart since late May. It has not been helped by either a stronger US Dollar after yesterday’s hot US inflation numbers or by a mixed bag of UK GDP data released earlier in this session.   GBP/USD WEAKENING GBP/USD is edging lower towards support from the downward sloping channel that checks in currently around 1.3315. If that should break, the pair
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USD & Cross Asset Reaction to US CPI, AUD Headwinds Ahead of Jobs Report

US CPI, AUD Analysis and News: Large Deviation From Consensus Needed in CPI to Awaken FX. Australian Jobs Data in Focus, Depressed Iron Prices Weigh on AUD Sentiment. The main event of today will be the latest US CPI report, where expectations are for the headline to rise 0.4ppts to 5.8%, while the core figure is seen up 0.3ppts to 4.3%. In turn, this would mark a sixth consecutive month of inflation above 5% with the core reading at 4% or more for the fifth month in a ro
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British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook: GBP/USD Shrugs Off Row Over MPs' Second Jobs

GBP PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS: GBP/USD continues to trade broadly sideways despite an ongoing row over whether former Conservative Attorney General Sir Geoffrey Cox broke any rules while earning more than £800,000 representing the British Virgin Islands Government in a corruption case. Even though this has come in the wake of the resignation of Conservative MP Owen Paterson after he was found to have breached lobbying rules over his £110,000 per year private-sector work, GBP/USD has
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Gold Price & Silver Technical Analysis: Nearing Big Levels

GOLD/SILVER TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: Gold heading into confluent resistance, intermediate and long-term. Silver heading towards neckline of inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.   Gold price has been a ranging mess the past few months and how major confluent resistance gets treated here very soon could determine whether that continues to be the case or not. There is a trend-line running down from the August 2020 high that makes up the top of a large wedge pattern. This is in
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US Dollar Hit as Treasury Yields Fall. Fed Warns of Risky Asset Price, Will USD Rally?

US DOLLAR, TREASURY YIELDS, USD, FEDERAL RESERVE, S&P 500 - TALKING POINTS: The US Dollar slipped with yields as Fed leadership change bets slightly rise. APAC equities and currencies were mixed with Japanese Yen outperforming. The Fed warned on the prices of risky assets, will USD resume its uptrend?   The US Dollar lost ground today on news that Federal Reserve Governor, Lael Brainard, was interviewed for the top job at the central bank. She is seen as mo
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US Dollar Technical Outlook: Capped by Resistance, for Now

USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: DXY hit resistance via the March 2020 low. Friday’s reversal day suggests a little weakness from here. Lines and levels to watch in the days ahead. US DOLLAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: CAPPED BY RESISTANCE, FOR NOW The US Dollar Index (DXY) ran into the pivotal March 2020 low, the trough created during the early days of the pandemic. It was a panicky low that made it an important
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British Pound (GBP) Outlook Strained as Article 16 Fears Flare Up

EUR/GBP PRICE, CHART, AND ANALYSIS EU/UK relations continue to sour. Sterling supported for now but article 16 fears remain. Retail traders shun EUR/GBP.   Keep up to date with all market-moving data releases and events by using the DailyFX Calendar According to a raft of media outlets, the EU may suspend the Brexit trade deal if the UK triggers article 16, as has been suggested, as the relationship between the two sides continues to deteriorate. Article 1
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