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ArvinIG

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  1. Hi @RAHU, It seems that ASX CAN in only available on Share dealing accounts: For NEO, it seems to be on closing only. You can find this type of information on the dealing ticket in the "Other" Section as above. Thank you - Arvin
  2. Hi @GDog, IG operates under a direct custody model. This means shares purchased through IG will be held by Citi as the legal owner, with IG as the beneficial owner, and the client as the ultimate beneficial owner. Therefore we do not have direct access to voting and such documentation. We do need to raise a request on our end to provide you with these services. I will forward your feedback to the relevant department to be reviewed. Thank you - Arvin
  3. Hi @Topwon, Bank transfers usually take 1-3 business days, your transfer might have been delayed because of the weekend. The quickest way to deposit fund is via card. You can find further information on Deposits and Withdrawals here: I hope that it helps! All the best - Arvin
  4. With the long term weakness in EUR/USD, Richard Snow from Daily FX picks up on the trend and is looking for a better price to enter another short trade around US interest rates. Welcome, let's take a look now at a Risk Event for the week starting Monday 25th July. As we go into that last full trading week of the month, we can catch up now with Richard Snow from DailyFX with a look ahead to that event next week. Rich, how are you doing? What's going on? What's on your horizon? Hi Jeremy. I'm looking at a short EUR/USD trade, particularly short term, something intraday or scalping, around the FOMC rate decision next week, Wednesday. The euro is still in a bit of trouble. Major risks to the region considering you have to look at the gas flows continuing between Nord Stream 1. Those are at lower levels than expected. We've also had widespread rejection after an EU proposal for member states to consume 15% less gas. That continues to be a dark cloud over the eurozone and the euro. We obviously had the resignation of Italy's prime minister Mario Draghi, triggering snap elections to be held in September. And then we had the ECB rate decision yesterday, which actually was a positive on the grand scheme of things. And we saw that 50-basis point surprise and the introduction of the ECB's anti-fragmentation tool in the bond market to go along with it. Looking at the US, a fairly different story. We've seen that markets are expecting a 75-basis point hike on Wednesday. I don't anticipate that that will see a surge in the dollar but will certainly remain supportive of the dollar. So, looking at the chart, I'm looking at that particular area of resistance, that $1.0280 level. We've seen a push towards that without breaking above. So I'd be looking at another test of that level in the lead up to the FOMC decision whereupon we can look to fade such a move. We've been seeing a daily range of around 100 pips so, if you are to see a rejection of that $1.0280, perhaps looking at entries from $1.0250, going short, looking at about 100 pips, setting a stop around about $1.03 and look to fade that move. There are multiple levels to the downside that you can look at. Longer term play, you'd be looking at parity, but as I mentioned, I'd be looking to to fade this one in a very short time frame going in to next week. Interesting. Thanks very much indeed, Rich. Looking there for a better price to get in to go short on the euro-dollar around the FOMC decision on Wednesday. Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London 25 July 2022
  5. Hi @Kgrp74, It seems that shares were credited to your account, could you please confirm if there is still missing shares? GSK had a Reverse stock split with the terms of 4:5 , I believe that it is the reason why you received 21 GSK shares. Thank you - Arvin
  6. Hi @SHODGSO, That is correct, after a Corporate action (CA) you will need to edit your book cost as the CA team will need to sell and re-book your shares at the price of 0 to process the event. You can details on how to edit your book cost here: https://www.ig.com/au/help-and-support/investments/share-trading/how-do-i-edit-my-book-cost Thank you - Arvin
  7. Australian e-conveyancing platform PEXA is intent upon enhancing its tech capabilities and expanding upon its market dominance following its $1.174 billion listing on the ASX in June last year. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Artificial intelligence Bank Australia CFD Shares in ASX-listed digital property exchange PEXA could rise on the back of improvements to its in-house tech capabilities via strategic fintech partnerships. PEXA may also possess a ‘monopoly moat’ advantage enabling it to account for over 80% of Australian property transaction processing in the second half of 2021. PEXA invests in AI start-up Elula On 27 May, PEXA announced that it is acquiring up to a 25% stake in Australian artificial intelligence (AI) company Elula for an undisclosed sum. Elula was founded in 2017 by two former Commonwealth Bank executives. It has developed proprietary AI and machine learning technology for driving customer acquisition and retention. PEXA said that the investment will let it provide ‘a more holistic view of critical lending and refinance consumer behaviour, further amplifying PEXA’s capabilities for financial institutions’. PEXA also claimed that its partnership with Elula will enable it to leverage synergies by overlapping institutional clients in the Australian banking sector. Elula already provides its AI products to banks, credit unions and mutual funds that are also PEXA customers. Landchecker partnership improves info offerings Elula is PEXA’s second strategic investment to date, following PEXA’s acquisition of a 38% stake in Australian prop-tech firm Landchecker back in February. Founded in 2015, Landchecker is a comprehensive provider of property information to both professional members of the sector as well as consumers. The company says that this improves their ability to make relocation and investment decisions. PEXA said at the time that the joint investment with RACV would serve to enhance the property data that it provides to the industry, and provide the basis for new products and services. PEXA readies payments scheme for UK expansion PEXA also has plans to expand in the UK housing market with the launch of a remortgage platform in autumn, which it contends will save on time and expenses via process streamlining. To drive the success of the platform, in April PEXA announced the development of an entirely new payment scheme – PEXA Pay. The Bank of England will serve as the settlement agent for the scheme following successful testing with a cohort of seven mortgage lenders. PEXA also announced that it had entered a partnership with ClearBank – the UK’s biggest next-generation clearing and embedded banking platform, to broaden access to the remortgage platform. Fund manager says PEXA has monopoly moat The effectiveness of PEXA’s fully digitised property settlement process has driven rapid growth in its home market of Australia. According to PEXA it helps over 20,000 families settle their homes each week. In a recent interview, Leon de Wet of Elston Asset Management identified PEXA as a ‘monopoly moat’ company–a company with a protective ‘moat’ that its competitors will find challenging to surmount. De Wet said that PEXA is ‘estimated to have handled more than 80% of the property transactions in Australia for the six months to December 2021’. This suggests that the platform achieved a position of market dominance just after its listing in June of that year. Give yourself the edge with spreads from just 1 point on major global indices like ASX 200, US500 and FTSE100. Access more weekly and weekend trading hours than anyone else with Australia’s No.1 CFD provider* Find out more about indices trading or open an account to trade now * Number 1 in Australia by primary relationships, CFDs, Investment Trends November 2021 Leveraged Trading Report Marc Howe | Financial Writer 22 July 2022
  8. Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 25th July 2022. These are projected dividends and likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made. Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. Amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative.A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Dividends Index Bloomberg Code Effective Date Summary Dividend Amount N/A Special Div How do dividend adjustments work? This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  9. Meta earnings are expected to contract significantly on an annualized basis in Q2 2022 Source: Bloomberg Shares Meta Platforms Price Facebook E-commerce Advertising When are the Meta results expected? Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook), the Nasdaq 100 listed social media giant, is set to release second quarter (Q2) results for the fiscal year 2022 (Q2 2022) on 27 of July 2022. What is ‘The Street’s’ expectations for the Q2 2022 results? ‘The Street’ expectations for the upcoming results are as follows: Revenue of $29.04 billion -0.10% year on year (YoY) Earnings per share (EPS) $2.61 -27.74% (YoY) Q2 results are expected to see margin pressures weighing on earnings. The strengthening dollar would have provided a negative input for the repatriation of earnings, particularly from ecommerce/advertising operations in European jurisdictions. This is furthered by the halt of business and services in Russia. However markets are expecting a softer quarter of earnings. What will be of key interest, is any data on user activity and growth. Facebook is now also seeing stiff competition for screen (marketing) time from younger rivals such as TikTok, as well as long time competitors such as Alphabet (Google / Youtube). In what is becoming a much more saturated marketplace, user activity and growth become key metrics In lieu of the availability of advertising and ecommerce real estate for companies like Meta. How to trade Meta into the results Source: Refinitiv Refinitive data shows a consensus of (61) analyst ratings at ‘buy’ for Meta. A mean of estimates suggest a long term share price target of $280.64 for the company. The current share price trades at a 60% discount to this assumed long term fair value (as of 20 July 2022). Source: IG IG sentiment data shows that 97% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 20 of July 2022) expect the price to rise over the near term, while 3% of these clients expect the price to fall. Meta – Technical view Source: ProRealTime The long term price trend for the share price of Meta remains down highlighted by the price still trading firmly below the 200 day simple moving average (SMA). However we are starting to see the suggestion of a short term reversal as the price breaks out of a short term range and larger wedge formation. The near term breakout suggests 200 and 223 as possible upside resistance targets from the move. However for renewed faith in a prolonged uptrend we would like to at least see the 20 day SMA trading back above the 50 day SMA. Until such time, we would continue to look for short entry on any bearish price reversals from the current move higher. In summary Meta is set to release Q2 2022 results on 27 of July 2022 Q2 2022 results are expected to show a year on year decrease in revenue and EPS Long term broker consensus suggests the share to currently be a ‘buy’, with a longer term price target of $280.64 IG clients with open positions on the share are predominantly long The long term price trend for Meta remains down, although we have started to see the price rebounding in the short term Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg 21 July 2022 21:32
  10. Sizewell C plant gains approval highlighting the growing case for investment in uranium stocks as the world shifts towards self sufficiency. Source: Bloomberg Shares Uranium Sizewell C nuclear power station Sizewell nuclear power stations Nuclear power Nuclear reactor UK power plant approval indicative of wider trend Today has seen the French energy firm EDF gain approval for their Sizewell C nuclear power plant, as the company seeks to expand on their already established Sizewell B plant in Suffolk. This is a particularly notable breakthrough as it appears to highlight a growing global trend as sentiment softens towards nuclear. Sizewell C has had plenty of opposition in its time, with local protests ensuring that authorities go through four-rounds of consultancy from the inception of the project in 2012. However, events in Russia have fast-tracked efforts to move towards a more self-sufficient energy mix. Unlike most energy sources, which can be massively influenced by geo-political relationships and pricing fluctuations, the costs associated with a Nuclear power plant are less about the price of Uranium and more the ongoing running costs of running the plant safely. While the plant will face plenty of further opposition, the question of whether EDF get this expansion off the ground is less important than the wider picture for Uranium demand. Staunch opposition in Japan and Germany starts to turn While the Sizewell C plan faced opposition from 10,000 East Sussex residents, experiences in Fukushima have ensured that pretty much the entire Japanese population stood against turning the reactors back on. However, that is exactly what their Prime Minister plans to do, with Fumio Kishida requesting that his Minister for Industry gets up to nine nuclear reactors operational by Winter. Germany is another traditionally staunch critic of nuclear power, with the country providing consistent opposition against efforts within the EU to include nuclear energy as a green sustainable investment in its "taxonomy." However, the evident risk posed by German overreliance upon Russian energy has clearly seen a shift, with the EU finally including Nuclear in their taxonomy which now labels the energy form as being sustainable. This opens the door for European green bonds to invest in nuclear projects for the first time. According to 2021 figures, EDF could have €7.9 billion worth of projects eligible for green funding going forward. That is by far the largest segment in consideration. Source: Bloomberg With global attitudes shifting in favour of nuclear once again, we can expect to see demand for the raw material pick up in the coming years. Supply will also likely expand, although it takes time to get a mine operational once again. Recent talk from the United States over the need to swiftly develop the means to produce uranium concentrate highlight to global push towards building a relatively self-sufficient nuclear industry. As the world transitions towards greater electrification, it is also clear that we cannot continue to burn fossil fuels to create that electricity. Just as the EU have now classified, nuclear largely does allow for the creation of energy in a sustainable manner if produced and stored properly. While IG does not allow the trade of the underlying Uranium price itself, we can use the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust as a good proxy for underlying price. The comparison below highlights the correlation seen over the course of the past year. We can see that price has largely taken place within a well defined range over much of the past year, with the declines seen throughout global markets helping to dampen elevated sentiment seen in March and April. However, with support coming into play here, the underlying fundamentals behind uranium demand and supply should help elevate prices once again. Source: TradingView Yellow Cake Yellow Cake is the primary uranium investment vehicle in the UK, with the company issuing shares and stockpiling the product over time. We have seen YCA shares similarly head lower over the course of the past three-months, bringing price 28% lower in the process. However, it is notable that price remains above the £2.94 swing-low established in late-February. As long as the price remains above that key pivot level, this stock looks attractive. Source: ProRealTime Cameco Uranium giant Cameco is another trustworthy name in the field, with the producer clearly trending in the right direction despite recent weakness. That decline takes us to 26% below its April high, yet the uptrend is evident on this weekly chart. With that in mind, bullish positions are favoured as long as the price remains above the $18.02 swing-low. Source: ProRealTime Global X Uranium ETF Looking at the wider uranium space as a whole, the Global X Uranium ETF allows for investment into a wide range of companies involved in the mining of uranium and production of nuclear components. Clearly we can see that things are less clear-cut for the bulls here, with the price looking at risk of rolling over. However, the bullish story still remains in play until we break back below the $17.27 swing-low established last August. Source: ProRealTime Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London 21 July 2022 23:49
  11. Hi All, The IT team is investigating the issue under the Ticket number INC0646726. It seems that the feature is back. Please let us know if you have any feedback that can be forwarded to the IT team. Thank you - Arvin
  12. Hi there, Thank you for your posts. It seems that the feature is available on the light mode but effectively it is not on the dark mode: I will reach out to IT to see if they have more information. Thank you - Arvin
  13. Hi @Femina, There are no silly question. In your Live account section, in Corporate action , you should see any ongoing Corporate action you are eligible to. Please ensure that you are looking at the right account. I hope that it helps! All the best - Arvin
  14. HI @CloudStock, Could you please confirm that all boxes are ticked on your Settings: Please reach out to helpdesk.uk@ig.com , our team will be able to investigate on the issue you are facing. Thank you - Arvin
  15. Hi @Femina, You can find information on the Right Issues here: https://www.ig.com/en/help-and-support/cfds/market-details/what-happens-to-my-shares-position-if-the-company-offers-a-right You should receive an email from the Corporate Action which will explain your options. All the best - Arvin
  16. Hi @swlloyd3, Thank you for your post. You can't have the MACD twice on the same chart. I will forward you feed back to the relevant team. You can alternatively duplicate the chart: You can then have two MACD with different settings on the same screen: I hope that it helps ! All the best - Arvin
  17. Japanese yen gyrates against the US dollar on Bank of Japan decision; BoJ maintains policy rate, yield-curve control amid tepid inflation and USD/JPY steadies after initial move as trades search for direction. Source: Bloomberg Forex Japanese yen Bank of Japan United States dollar Inflation USD/JPY Bank of Japan holds steady on ultra-loose monetary policy The Japanese yen was little changed against the US dollar after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy framework, keeping its 0.25% yield cap on 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and the -0.1% policy rate in place, bucking a global monetary tightening trend. USD/JPY is little changed after an initial downside reaction. Upgraded inflation forecasts may explain the lack of yen weakness here. The BoJ increased its inflation forecast to 2.3%, up from 1.9% in April. Core inflation rose 2.1% in May from a year ago, slightly above the central bank’s 2% target. The core CPI forecast for next year excluding energy rose to 1.4% from 1.1%. However, prices are expected to remain below target as supply chains normalize. The updated forecast sees core prices excluding energy falling to 1.3% by 2024, up slightly from 1.1% but still well below target. The central bank trimmed the current fiscal year’s growth forecast to 2.4% from 2.9%, underscoring the impact of China’s Covid lockdowns, the war in Ukraine and rising rates abroad. Japan’s consumers have seen their wages drop in real terms as prices outpace nominal wage growth. Government data for May, released earlier this month, showed the largest decline in real wages in almost two years. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, whose term is set to expire next April, has been adamant in his defense of the bank’s ultra-loose policy despite the yen dropping to a 24-year low. That weakness has increased already elevated import costs. Earlier today, Japan posted a trade deficit of 1.38 trillion yen for June. On a seasonally adjusted basis, it was the highest since 2014. Japan’s trade book will likely remain in deficit as the global economy cools, tempering the demand for Japanese goods and keeping pressure on JPY. Back in April, in a rare move, the policy statement added foreign exchange rates as a risk to the economy. Some took that as a sign of anxiety and saw further depreciation in the yen, potentially forcing intervention in policy. That inspired short bets against JGBs, a trade known as the widow maker. The BoJ was forced to buy an unusually large amount of bonds to defend its yield cap. On the currency front, short bets on USD/JPY increased as well, with traders favoring tail-risk odds for the yen to rally on today’s announcement. Those bets eased into today’s announcement. USD/JPY one-minute chart Source: TradingView Thomas Westwater | Analyst, DailyFX, New York City 21 July 2022 This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
  18. Tesla rises in after-hours trading on rosy earnings report; company sold 75% of Bitcoin position, pushing BTC lower and prices look poised to rise near wedge resistance. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Tesla, Inc. Bitcoin Market sentiment MACD Tesla is higher in after-hours trading after posting a better-than-expected earnings report for its second quarter. The electric-vehicle company saw revenue at $16.9 billion, beating the $16.88 billion consensus forecast and rising more than 40% on a year-over-year basis. Earnings per share (EPS), on an adjusted basis, were $2.27, well above the $1.83 estimate. The company generated a slightly softer-than-expected free cash flow number at $621 versus the $625.2 million expected. A 50% average annual growth rate for its vehicle deliveries remains a rather soft number for guidance especially considering the additional manufacturing capacity available for production. There were disruptions to manufacturing caused by Covid lockdowns in China. However, Tesla sees its Shanghai production rate increasing in the second half of the year. The Fremont Factory in California produced a record number of vehicles, an encouraging milestone. Those vehicles were more expensive to construct, with automotive gross margin falling to 27.9% from 32.9%. That shows high inflation and competition for battery components are impacting profitability. Investors may brush that aside, given that it remains among the best in the industry. Tesla converted $936 million worth of Bitcoin into fiat currency, boosting its balance sheet cash position. The conversion accounted for around 75% of Tesla’s Bitcoin. A specific impairment charge wasn’t given, but it is likely significant. The news weighed on BTC, with prices falling near the 23,000 level. In early 2021, Tesla announced the purchase of $1.5 billion in Bitcoin, a move that was seen as adding legitimacy to the cryptocurrency. Overall, the numbers are encouraging and may see Tesla’s share price perform well in the coming weeks. Tesla technical outlook Prices are at triangle resistance, which may lead to a run higher if bulls can overtake the level. Meanwhile, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is on track to cross above the 50-day SMA, a bullish sign. The MACD and RSI oscillators are also showing positive movement, adding to the bullish outlook. Still, prices need to climb more than 50% to reach levels seen in April around 1,152. Tesla daily chart Source: TradingView Thomas Westwater | Analyst, DailyFX, New York City 21 July 2022 This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
  19. The S&P 500 has already fallen by 17.9% year-to-date to 3,937 points. But with recession looming, this could just be the start. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Recession Inflation S&P 500 S&P Global Ratings The critical factors behind the S&P 500’s future became apparent to many as early as January, as a toxic cocktail of rocketing inflation and tightening monetary policy conspired to send the US benchmark index into a bear market. And as recession becomes ever more likely, its recent relief rally could just be a dead cat bounce. S&P 500: a precis of H1 As the markets peaked in November, the Omicron variant sent ripples of fear down investors’ spines as a possible return to the days of lockdowns seemed to be on the horizon. Then in December, the Bank of England became the first major central bank to increase interest rates as worries of sustained inflation began to bite. Just as the fragile global economy started to recover, February saw Russia invade Ukraine, sending oil, gas, wheat, and a half-dozen critical metals to record or near-record highs. Then in April, China placed millions of citizens into strict lockdown, including in Shanghai, the world’s largest port, causing further damage to the already weakened global supply chain. Simultaneously, the US was hit by a severe labour crisis that shows no signs of abating. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 372,000 jobs were added in June, leaving unemployment at a low of 3.6%. Will interest rates keep rising in H2? With CPI inflation at 9.1%, its highest in decades, and juggling a record $9 trillion balance sheet, the Federal Reserve was forced to increase interest rates by 75 basis points in June to between 1.5% to 1.75%, the largest hike since 1994. Chair Jerome Powell has warned that ‘inflation can’t go down until it flattens out. That’s what we’re looking to see.’ As a consequence of tightening monetary policy, the Chair thinks unemployment could rise to 4.1%, saying ‘we never seek to put people out of work…you really cannot have the kind of labor market we want without price stability.’ Goldman Sachs President John Waldron agrees with Powell’s thinking, arguing ‘you’re seeing the Fed move quite aggressively and, in my opinion, very appropriately to get on top of what’s significant inflation building in the economy… we expect them to continue to be aggressive in fighting inflation, and I’d say so far, so good.’ Goldman’s Chief Economist Jan Hatzius thinks that next week ‘the FOMC will not accelerate the near-term hiking pace and will deliver a 75bp hike at the July FOMC meeting’ pointing to falling gas prices and dovish comments from several Fed officials. But long term, Blackstone Group CIO Joseph Zidle believes that in order to control the ‘more deeply entrenched’ inflation, the Reserve will have to ‘exceed 4%. I think they could go above 4.5%, maybe even closer to 5%.’ Source: Bloomberg The recession factor Recession alarm bells have been sounding for months now from almost every investment bank, analyst, and commentator. But only now is the concrete evidence starting to filter through. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index has fallen to 98.7, its lowest level since February 2021. And worryingly, home sales have fallen for three consecutive months, with mortgage demand now at a 22-year low. Richard Kelly, head of global strategy at TD Securities, thinks ‘the odds of a recession in the next 18 months are greater than 50%,’ noting ‘Fed hikes really won’t hit until the end of this year. That’s where the peak drag is in the economy. I think that’s where the near-term risk for a U.S. recession sits right now.’ Earnings warnings In June, Absolute Strategy Research Chief Investment Strategist Ian Harnett warned that ‘with valuations having come down so far, the greatest risk to equities now comes from actual earnings falling short of current expectations. The next leg of the bear market is likely to be driven by earnings recessions.’ Investment firm Muzinich concurs, arguing a recession is now a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if.’ Tatjana Greil-Castro, co-head of public markets, warns ‘there will be a recession at some point,’ and that ‘where earnings are coming in is for investors to establish when the recession is likely to happen.’ Yesterday, shares in Haliburton, Hasbro, and Truist all helped send the S&P 500 higher, after beating analyst expectations. Tech giant Netflix is also higher, having lost far fewer subscribers than feared. But the important names — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Tesla — are yet to report, with the latter coming tonight. Poor news on this front could send the S&P 500 spiralling. Where next for the S&P 500? Deutsche Bank US equity and global strategist, Binky Chadha, makes a compelling argument that the S&P 500 could fall to as low as 3,000 points, as the risk of a ‘protracted selloff’ could create a ‘self-fulfilling recession.’ Meanwhile, Bank of America analysts have revised their year-end target to 3,600 points, a 20% drop on their previous target of 4,500. Now expecting five quarters of negative growth through Q1 2023, its analyst team argues that ‘equities are not adequately discounting a recession if we are already in one.’ And Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson has predicted a year-end of 3,900 points, but has warned that a trough of 3,000 points remains a very real possibility in a ‘recessionary outcome.’ However, many analysts remain positive that the index will continue to recover through H2. Leading bull, Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus, believes the S&P 500 will rise to 4,800 points by the end of 2022, despite ‘palpable risks of recession.’ However, this itself is a cut from his former estimate of 5,330 points. The analyst points out that ‘from Dec. 31, 2008, through March 2009, the S&P 500 dropped 25% on expectations that the Federal Reserve would fail in its efforts to get the economy back on track. Instead, what happened was the market rallied 64% from March 9th through the end of the year.’ This leaves the S&P 500’s trajectory reliant on a possible recession, unpredictable central bank, and the ever-capricious earnings season. Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London 21 July 2022
  20. Apple looking to rely on services revenues, as the production and delivery of physical products come under the spotlight thanks to logistical and supply chain issues Source: Bloomberg Shares Apple Inc. Supply chain Revenue Market trend Market When will Apple report their latest earnings? Apple report their earnings for their fiscal third-quarter (Q3) post-market on Thursday 28 July, 2022. What should traders look out for? Apple shares have been hit hard over the course of 2022, with fears over higher interest rates damaging many of the big US tech names. Expectations of an impending recession do ask questions over demand over the course of this year, while expectations of rising interest rates will provide questions around market valuations. The chart below highlights how iPhone sales dominate despite attempts to diversify over the years. However, it also points towards the undeniable growth of their services business, which provides optimism for future revenues aside from the need to constantly innovate new market leading products. Source: Macrumours There are undoubtedly significant headwinds facing the firm, with a high risk of underperformance or slowing growth as a result. Supply chain issues have been prominent over the course of the first half of 2022, and that is likely to represent one key area of concern for investors. The chart below from Schroders highlights how supply chain problems remain the primary concern for many firms, although we are seeing a sharp rise in mentions of “recession” and “inflation” in recent months. This highlights some of the key issues traders should be looking out for when they attempt to weigh up ongoing and future risks for the firm. Source: Schroders With regards to Apple, they certainly have had supply chain issues to overcome across the business. Their operations in China will be particularly in focus as the Chinese ‘zero Covid-19’ policies provide questions around production and demand levels for the quarter. Meanwhile, the Russian sales figure should also be followed to see the impact caused by the recent pause in sales. Things should look more positive on the services side of the business, with double-digit year-over-year (YoY) growth expected for the fiscal Q3. This is an increasingly important and growing segment of the business that optimists will be watching closely. Services represented 21% of total revenues in Q3 2021, while that figure is forecast to rise to 24% this time around. Thankfully, this is a particularly high margin segment of the business (72.6%). It is worthwhile noting that the numerous factors impacting Apple from both a demand and supply perspective should provide the grounds for significant volatility away from market expectations come 28 July. The wide spread of analyst estimates does highlight the unpredictability of earnings for the quarter, with the lowest revenue prediction of $78 billion coming well below the $88 billion forecast from the optimistic Elazar Advisors. For long-term investors, it will be prudent to look towards the company breakdown of why the numbers look a certain way. After-all, there will no doubt be factors in play that will be temporary in nature rather than indicative of long-term concerns. The latest information coming from Apple ahead of this earnings report points towards a slowing in hiring at the firm, with specific departments seeing lower investment in the face of growing economic headwinds. Thus, traders should look out for any clarity on the size and reasoning behind that decision. Apple earnings – what to expect Revenue – $82.53 billion vs $81.43 billion (Q3 2021), and $97.28 billion (Q2 2022). Earnings per share (EPS) – $1.16 vs $1.30 (Q3 2021) and $1.52 (Q2 2022). Apple earnings – valuation and broker ratings Analysts are overwhelmingly positive for Apple stock, with none rating it a ‘sell’ recommendation. Instead, out of 47 analysts, there are 39 ‘strong buy’ or ‘buy’ recommendations, and eight ‘hold’ recommendations. Source:Eikon Apple shares – technical analysis The weekly Apple chart highlights the declines seen over the course of the second quarter of 2022, with the June low of $129.07 representing a 30% decline from the January high. Whether that represents the sum total of this selloff remains to be seen, but the stock has certainly gathered steam in the weeks leading into this earnings release. Source: ProRealTime The daily chart highlights how price has managed to rally into the crucial swing-high of $151.71. A push up through that level would bring an end to the bearish trend, pointing towards an extension of this rebound. Watch out for a potential breakdown on the stochastic oscillator through the 80 mark to signal a potential return of the bearish sentiment that has been evident in February and April. Nonetheless, the fact that we have managed to move out of the pattern of lower highs does instill greater confidence going forward. Source: ProRealTime Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London 21 July 2022
  21. Hi @Kgrp74, Looks like the Pay date for the Haleon shares from the GSK ADR is tomorrow. You should receive your the Haleon shares tomorrow. Thank you - Arvin
  22. APAC markets set to trade higher as risk assets rally; US dollar falls as traders look past recession fears and BTC/USD on track to break above confluent resistance. Source: Bloomberg Forex Commodities United States dollar Bitcoin BTC/USD European Central Bank Wednesday’s Asia-Pacific outlook Asia-Pacific Markets are set to open higher after stocks and other risk assets rallied in New York overnight. The benchmark S&P 500 rose 2.76% as traders brushed aside disappointing corporate earnings reports. A softening in Federal Reserve rate hike bets are supporting risk taking, with traders betting that the Fed may have to stop hiking sooner than previously expected. The US dollar DXY Index fell for the third day despite the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow update for Q2 posting a weaker number, falling to -1.6% from -1.5% after weak US housing data. The euro took advantage of the situation, benefiting further from strengthening rate hike bets for the European Central Bank’s meeting later this week. Overnight index swaps show a nearly 50% chance that the ECB will deliver a 50-bps hike. However, that leaves EUR/USD open to a pullback if the ECB disappoints. European natural gas prices fell despite a crippling heat wave across much of Europe. A Reuters report, citing sources familiar, stated that the Nord Stream 1 Pipeline looks like it will resume operations as scheduled. The European Commission is set to deliver a proposal that would reduce natural gas demand across the European Union over the winter, according to Reuters. Crude oil prices rose, benefiting from the risk-on tone across markets and a weaker US dollar. A report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a 1.86 million barrel build in US stockpiles for the week ending July 15. Still, supply remains extremely tight around the globe, and prices may continue rising if recession fears fall further. China’s one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) are due for an update today. The Bloomberg consensus forecast shows those LPRs unchanged at 3.7% and 4.45%, respectively. However, a cut to the five-year LPR wouldn’t be too surprising after a series of mortgage boycotts across the country in recent weeks. The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe will speak from Melbourne at 9:10 am AEST. The Australian dollar stands to benefit if Mr. Lowe comes off with a hawkish tone. Notable events for July 20: Australia – Westpac Leading Index MoM (June) China – Loan Prime Rates (July) Japan – 6-Month Bill Auction BTC/USD technical outlook BTC/USD is on track to record a daily close above a level of confluent resistance made up of a resistance level from June, a descending trendline from March and the 50-day Simple Moving Average. Meanwhile, MACD is on track to cross above its midpoint, while the RSI oscillator strengthens above its midpoint. The next major obstacle for bulls is a support level that was in place from early May to early June. BTC/USD daily chart Source: TradingView Thomas Westwater | Analyst, DailyFX, New York City 20 July 2022 This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
  23. The BoJ is set to hold their monetary meeting across 20 – 21 July 2022, with expectations for the BoJ to delay jumping on the bandwagon for rate hikes once again. Source: Bloomberg Forex Bank of Japan Japanese yen USD/JPY United States dollar Central bank Central bank expected to head for a no-change once more The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is one of the last few central banks to hop onto the bandwagon for rate hikes, with its accommodative monetary policies set to remain for the upcoming July meeting as well. Current market expectations are unanimously pricing for a no-change and looking further out, probability of a 0.10% hike is priced at only 3.7% for the September meeting while increasing to 22.3% in the October meeting. The BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has recently stuck to his view last week that Japan’s economy outlook still carries ‘very high uncertainty’ and maintains the central bank’s readiness to ramp up stimulus if needed. The reiteration of his usual guidance seeks to push back against any hawkish expectations, which have previously been built up on the weaker-yen story. Keeping its current policy settings unchanged will include maintaining its target of -0.1% for short-term rates and the upper limit of 0.25% for its 10-year bond yield. The BoJ has thus far proven its resolve in keeping its yield curve control (YCC) intact with aggressive bond buying, in a bid to push back against bond traders seeking to challenge its policy status quo on multiple occasions. Weak-yen story could see some alleviation for now With talks of a 100 basis-point (bp) hike surfacing after the upside surprise in US June consumer price index (CPI), the USD/JPY is currently hanging close to yet another 24-year high. Concerns on the rapid weakening in yen continues to be highlighted but thus far, there has been a lack of any currency interventions after months of jawboning. With Japan being a major oil-importing country, the pressure for elevated energy costs with a weaker yen could see some alleviation, with oil prices down more than 20% from its June peak. This may aid to substantiate the no-change policy in the upcoming BOJ meeting, with the BoJ continuing on its path of divergence with other global central banks. Outlook report to provide fresh update on economic conditions The upcoming BOJ meeting will also see the release of its quarterly outlook report, which could bring about an upward revision in inflation forecast above its 2% target. Previous 1.9% forecast could seem understated, with core inflation in April and May this year already surpassing the 2% mark. That said, the BoJ has firmly stuck to its view of cost-push inflation being temporary and are likely to emphasise on stronger wage growth for any sustainability of its 2% inflation target. With Japan’s average cash earnings failing to see any significant pickup yet (1.0% year-on-year (YoY) in June), a status quo in monetary policies is set to remain. This could also be justified with a potential downward revision in growth projections, from previous 2.9% for fiscal 2022. A record high in daily Covid-19 cases seems to bring back questions surrounding the reimplementation of virus restrictions and although there has been some pushback from authorities pertaining to that, the possibility of measures kicking in remains as the upcoming summer holidays in Japan will pose further risks of virus spreads. Japan 225: Improved risk sentiments driving a break above trendline resistance The improved risk sentiments have led the Japan 225 index to break above a confluence of resistance at the 27,000 level, where a downward trendline coincides with a key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The formation of a new higher high, following a recent higher low, seems to point towards a near-term upward bias. This comes along with improving technical indications, with the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) attempting to cross above the zero-mark. Further upside could place the 27,645 level on watch as the next stage of resistance. Source: IG charts USD/JPY: Could some catch-up retracement play out? The USD/JPY pair seems to trade on a similar path to that of US 10-year yields, particularly since 2021 till date. This comes as Japan’s 10-year bond yield remains relatively well-anchored by its yield curve control (YCC) policy, while yield differentials with the US remains as the key driver for the currency pair. That said, the relationship seems to have gone off-course lately, as the US 10-year yields came under pressure from recession worries but USD/JPY stays resilient. Further downtick in Treasury yields could potentially drive some catching-up in USD/JPY in the form of a near-term retracement, as expectations of a 100 bp hikes in the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting continues to be pared back. Source: TradingView On the technical front, the USD/JPY continues to trade on an upward channel, but recent moves seem to bring a retest of its upper trendline resistance. Any near-term retracement could see the 134.93 level as potential support. The persistent upside surprise in US inflation may allow the USD/JPY to retain its upward bias for now, with one to watch for any formation of a higher low for the currency pair. Source: IG charts Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore 19 July 2022
  24. Hi @Phil86869, We haven't received the spun off shares yet. Once we receive them they will be booked on your account with the 1 for 1 term. They should be booked by the end of the week. Thank you - Arvin
  25. Hi @shazamnick, It is likely that the market is on closing only, meaning you can only close open positions and not open new ones. Could you please clarify which markets you were after? Thank you - Arvin
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