CharlotteIG
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Posts posted by CharlotteIG
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On 30/11/2019 at 17:52, Mercury said:
Most commentators seem to be of the opinion that the GBP is going down, down, down vs pretty much everything else. I have been of a similar bias, at least in terms of GBPUSD but more due to USD strength than GBP weakness, not so much on EURGBP, (see my Triad thread for details of why I think EURGBP is going down long term). As a contrarian by nature my interest is always piqued when I see the majority talking up a "one way bet", as is occurring on GBPUSD and I look to see if something else may be about to occur.
So what if the Brexit issue is finally resolved on December 12th? This would mean a Tory majority (or workable partnership with the Brexit party perhaps). The Tory campaign strategists seem to be doing their best to lose this election with a series of well covered gaffs, starting with Rees-Mogg on Grenfell; then a series of mishaps with candidates turning out to have made ill advised statements in the past; then BoJo himself trying to justify comments made in journalistic articles; then a manifesto that turns the funding taps on and is clearly un-affordable; and finally getting caught up in fake claims such as the number of "new" nurses they will hire and sticking to this despite being found out. It is as if they don't want to win... If true they are being undone by equally or greater catastrophic campaigns by the Lib Dems and Labour, the latter of whose errors are no numerous and calamitous I don't have time to write them all out but just watch Andrew Neil's interview with Che Corbyn and you will get the gist. So net a least worst result of a Tory victory is probably on the cards and therefore Brexit happens in short order. One uncertainty resolved, for the next 5 years at least...
If Brexiteers turn out to be right and the Remoaner Armageddon scenario is false then the UK (inc Scotland as no further referendum is likely in the medium term) can make its own trade deals, address its balance of payments and deficit issues and reinvigorate its economy overall, subject to whatever deal with the EU is eventually done, if at all... But what happens if a global economic shock, recession, deflation, stagflation, hyper inflation, call it what you will, occurs? Well spending plans will go out the window for a start as survival will be paramount. Interestingly enough some traditional Labour supporters are not going to vote for Labour this time on the basis of their spending plans and poor track record with the public purse. So it seems the people may already get the need to be careful with the national finances even if the politicians don't, yet! But we should remember that, although it may not seem like it, the UK is the fifth largest economy in the World, surprising given the heyday of the Empire is long gone and so is British manufacturing. Still there it is. Add to this that the UK has its own currency, a venerable one that still has the air of security about it in many parts of the World. Add to this that the UK is, in my opinion and in the opinion of many people from overseas whom I know, the worlds strongest democracy (note I am not British so this is not a nationalistic view). Add to this that the UK will have just left the protectionist, undemocratic EU (Brexiteer view and view of many non EU members) and be a stand alone offshore entity. Add to this that the UK is about as open and business friendly a jurisdiction with a reasonably low corporate and person tax rate (not if Corbyn/McDonnell have anything to do about it!). Add to this that the UK has one of the preeminent world cities in London, a place where many overseas people like to stash their cash in property, listed companies and bullion vaults and the case for a flow of funds into the UK under a global economic shock is very strong indeed.
So that's the fundamentals case, and open to debate of course and full of what ifs, but what do the technicals look like?
Looking at the quarterly chart (including a long term chart - not shown) since the 1950s (and before, as the British Empire declined) GBPUSD has been in a Bear market that has roughly dropped in a motive wave to the 1984/5 all time low. After than a drawn out A-B-C retrace that hit the Fib 62% off the 1950s high point occurred at the credit crunch, which set up the current bearish phase. Note this has precisely nothing to do with Brexit, although joining the EU may have had an impact..? During the credit crunch GBPUSD dropped sharply then went sideways until 2014 (2 years before Brexit!) before dropping again. In fact we could view the Brexit referendum and everything that has since occurred as the final phase of the Bear and not the trigger. What if the drop in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit referendum was the end of the Bear? We often see an exhaustion spike at the end of a motive wave, and this would certainly qualify (note many people though it a flash crash but maybe an exhaustion spike is more correct?) What if the entire move so far since the ATL is an A-B (red), then the next phase would be a large wave C rally that will break the resistance trend line (see monthly chart) and carry one for some time to come.
Looking at the monthly chart the 2016 bottom occurred at a confluence of 2 possible supporting trend lines after a 1-5 motive wave off B (purple). The end of the move was in Oct 2016 and occurred with a then all time net negative Commitment of Traders (Futures & Options) print (-94k) and record total Short positions (-147k) with a significant pin bar (see weekly chart). A few months later we got the all time lowest net COT reading (-113k, -147k shorts again) and then the market rallied away. Looking at the weekly chart I can see that pin bar that prompted a 1-5 wave rally (exhaustion spike?). Normally a 1-5 is a motive wave (long term trend direction). In my bearish scenario I marked this out as a potential Flag formation but is doesn't sit well in the context of the rest of the price action, being too long. After a 1-5, if it is a motive wave 1, we tend to see an A-B-C retrace and at present it looks like this is what we have seen with a turn in September of 2019. This ended with a pin bar reversal, quick 1-2 (green) and rally away through weekly trend line resistance. Note also that the COT print just before the reversal was a net -107k, large but not all time but still a classic contrarian signal, which I traded long. At first I though this was a retrace move but the current consolidation does not really match the likely route for an A-B-C retrace that would end inside the long term resistance trend line (monthly chart) so my new lead scenario is that this consolidation is setting up for a much stronger rally that would break that monthly trend line and carry on for the foreseeable future in a large wave C (red). Note at all major turns significant positive momentum divergence and over sold oscillators are also present.
So net I think this more bullish scenario fits both the technicals and price action and the contrarian bias plus there is a fundamentals case, subject to what happens in the election. If the Tories do not win a workable majority (with or without Brexit party help) then all bets are off, or at least we may seen more consolidation or whipsaw until things are resolved. If Labour win, in any form, my Bearish scenario is likely to kick in big time as they look to explode the deficit and consign the country to another year (likely much more) of uncertainty and divisive politics, and that's before they get stuck into their long term Marxist state creation. The most important election in generations? Not wrong...
Thank you for that, such a great read
18 hours ago, Guest neill said:wow a lot of work gone into that!
so is cable going up or down? 😄
DailyFX have writen a piece on Cable! 'From the daily chart, we notice yesterday, GBP/USD rallied to a higher trading zone 1.2965 – 1.3048. Today, the price has tested the high end of the zone.' The anallysts are thinking it will continue to increase.
Do bear in mind the 'USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)' results are out this afternoon at 15:00 GMT, currently expected slightly lower than previous. Prev 54.7, est 54.5.
GBP/USD Changes Gear & Jumps to Multi-Month High -British Pound vs USD Price
We're not telling you which way to trade just giving you information using technical analysis and market news.
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On 01/12/2019 at 16:19, Mercury said:
Dr Copper is showing a bearish set up for me. After the potential wave B top out we now have a 1-2 with the turn on Wednesday, similarly to stock indices and a fall way, more bearish than on stocks, which may well prove to be an indicator for where stocks will go next. Certainly falling copper (and other hard commodity prices) is bearish for emerging markets and China...
@Mercury - up slightly on Monday but down yesterday and today. Good spot!
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On 30/11/2019 at 22:36, bucko said:
ive searched and thought about this question but cant work it out. can you explain to me what is meant by ... change ... and .... %change in the instument box..
sorry if it becomes a stupid question but i cant work it out in my head
thanks in advance
Hey @bucko, thanks for your question.
Change is point change for the market that day. % change is the % it's changed for the day.
If a market that was priced at £10 moved up to £15 by the end of the day, change would be 5, change % would be +50%.
I hope this helps
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1 minute ago, dmedin said:
@CharlotteIG It's interesting, some of the FTSE 100 and 250 stocks seem rather volatile just now. Probably best to day trade them and close out positions before 16:30
If they are too volatile and you hold the FTSE outside of 08:00-16:30 the spread will widen so that's a good strategy. Further to this, you can't watch the market through the night. I guess you could have your stops and limits in place to secure you but it's whatever works with your strategy.
For FTSE all GMT:
07.00-08.00
08.00-16.30
16.30-21.00
21.00-01.0001.00-07.00
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On 30/11/2019 at 13:36, Ranyana said:
Hi am a new member, would like to know if there are any charges beside the spread?
Hey @Ranyana- thanks for your first post.
With Spread betting all markets have the fee incorporated in the spread.
With CFD all markets apart from shares have the fee incorporated in the spread. With shares we charge commission.
With Share dealing, the fees are commission.
There are also other fees such as overnight funding if you hold a cash position. These can be avoided by holding a future/ forward market but these contracts have an expiry date and a larger spread.
You can find a break down for CFD and Spread betting by clicking here.
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Hey @doney21,
With share options you will need to call us to trade them and receive the premium. Our Spread betting options will have the cost included in the option price, CFDs will have a commission per side.
With index trading, our charge is included in your premium. So, if you were buying one put option on the FTSE and the price was 5, your premium would be (5 x 1 x £10 per point) = £50. This is the maximum you can lose for this trade and IG don't charge you commission the fee is built into that price.
I hope this helps. If you need me for anything else '@' me into the post
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23 hours ago, dmedin said:
Up, up and away! 🥳
_20191202_10_20.thumb.png.8c7246bb7a7790c5cddfb129b2bd5442.png)
I'm sure you've seen it this morning but it's now heading down. This is on the hourly time frame though so could recover for the day. Do you think this will recover or continue down?
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11 hours ago, dmedin said:
Updated it yesterday. Still seeing message today. Did it again for good measure. Still seeing the message.
Starting to get tired of this ... guess I won't be trading U.S. stuff soon anyway.
Hey @dmedin, thanks for your message.
It may be that your browser is holding onto cookies that are still reflecting the W-8BEN banner. If this issues has not resolved itself I would advise checking on another browser if the same banner is reflecting.
If the issue is still occurring, please contact our customer service team so they can check what the issue is.
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8 hours ago, robert_c1968 said:
Hi, 1414 Degrees floated last year and I bought stock and they gave me 1500 options @$0.35 EX 21/08/20. I don't know anything about trading Options. I also don't know if the options are to sell or to buy at that price. Basically all I want to know is whether it is more advantageous to exercise them when the stock price is lower than 0.35 or higher?
Rob
Hey @robert_c1968, thanks for your message.
Unfortunately our Australian corporate actions team aren't around at this time. I haven't heard of a corporate actions that offers options. What I would suggest is calling our help desk during Australian working hours so they can speak with our corporate actions team and clarify what the outcome of this corporate action is and how to trade options.
I will also email them and post their response on here tomorrow.
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8 hours ago, Hogan said:
Hi guys, I currently have some shares (TSGI) sitting in a DRS with Computershare Canada. I've been told I need to move these shares to a broker before I can move them again to a platform like IG to start trading them. Does anyone have experience doing this or can point me in the direction to get started? I think the first step is finding a broker but no idea where to start even with this. Ideally I think I want a domestic broker in AU but not sure if this is advantageous vs an international broker considering my shares are Canadian.
Hey @Hogan, thanks for your message.
If you're referring to Stars Group Inc (TSE: TSGI) we would not be able to transfer them over because they trade on the Canadian exchange which we're not set up on.
I'm not sure which Australian broker does allow traders to move and trade Canadian shares.
Sorry I couldn't help with this.
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36 minutes ago, dmedin said:
To be honest I'd much rather hear from people with 'skin in the game' as anyone can sit in front of a graph and say 'if this then this, on the other hand if that then that'.
I see what you mean, hear which way people are trading who are using real money. It does make sense, not sure who out of our community is trading this but would be great to hear from them.
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Also, heads up today (GMT) :
14:00: FYI - European Central Bank's President Christine Lagarde
15:00: USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) - Previous was 48.3, estimate is 49.2
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DailyFX analyst comments on the EURUSD price movement:
Thought this might be of interest! great TA for the potential bear movement if you use these trend lines!
IG are not telling you which way to trade just sharing some technical analysis views from DailyFX.
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On 29/11/2019 at 17:12, Robhalo said:
Anyone else not received their Plus500 November dividend payment??
Answer in
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On 29/11/2019 at 17:10, Robhalo said:
Hi,
Anyone else not received their Plus500 dividend payment this month??
Thanks
Rob
Hey Rob, thanks for your post.
This dividend has been paid to clients now. With share dealing accounts it's usually 1-2 working days after the pay date. The ex dividend date was 29th August 2019. You would have needed to buy the stock before the 29th August 2019 to receive the dividend. Check your stock, if it was purchased before 29th August 2019 please contact our help desk so they can look into the issue for you.
Thanks
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2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:
China better than expected manu PMI data Saturday showing expansion for the first time in 6 months encourages the other indices. US large caps are up over 25% on the year (see asset list below). No doubt the top picking crowd have all steamed in short again following Friday's red candle, I'm not sure these poor souls can actually be helped as it's clearly a derangement syndrome. Some even try to use TA to justify the false reality of imminent total collapse but when the chart is into clear space there is nothing to hang TA on, it's all just wishful thinking.
One of our Analysts have written a piece on this event but I love the visuals you've provided here! Thank you
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6 minutes ago, LeoTrader said:
Hi @CharlotteIG,
Out of interest, what would constitute 'large size' on a market with deep liquidity like the FX majors?
By advanced orders, do you mean accepting partial fills and/or using market orders over the default 'current price or better'?
Hey @LeoTrader, thanks for the post.
With major FX pairs it would normally be about £500 per point.
And yes, advanced orders are the partial fills and market orders.
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Apologies for the late response. We're in the initial beta launch phase and that we'll be rolling out more functionality and improvements. As we're still in the testing phase, not all clients will have access yet but it will be available to everyone in the coming months.
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1 hour ago, dmedin said:
It's starting to look like the sudden and inexplicable drop in Ocado's share price was just an opportunity to buy back in at a better price, not to go short. 🙈
@CharlotteIG In retrospect your post sounded like a hint
@dmedinI saw the large drop and once the bullish candle was visible again thought it could be a potential buying opportunity but with the large bear movement it's hard to predict if it will reverse direction or continue with the downward trend.
🐻 vs 🐮
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Jeremy Naylor has created a short clip following the polls yesterday but it's interesting to see Sterling price action against other currency.
Just a little reminder that IG will be live at 6am GMT on Friday 13th December following Thursdays vote.
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Even though Conservatives are in the lead one of our Analysts, Josh, wrote a piece on Labour manifesto: stocks to watch. It's a really interesting read on what could happen based off key promises Labour has made that could significantly impact investors and traders.
Our TV team have also created a TA piece on sterling which I will post in here as soon as it's ready.
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This might be of some use to people or potentially just a bit of fun. Daily FX have a DNA FX quiz. Let me know what you think and what you get
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2 hours ago, Domin said:
Can I add options to watchlist?
Due to how options are presented on the platform we haven't found a way to display them yet on a Watchlist. Our developers are looking to add them soon it's just the layout that's taking time.
You can add these to a workspace for the moment. I will update you when the developers get back to me.
_20191202_10_20.png.b26f502dd60541485fdc5433cf1426a3.png)
trading hours
in IG Trading Support - Dealing Questions
Posted
Shares work based on the exchange they trade on. For example stocks traded on the London stock exchange will only be available to trade 08:00 -16:30 GMT.
Most markets open Sunday 23:00 and close Friday 21:00 (FX 22:00).
Do you have any specifically that you're looking for as there are some that have different opening hours?